NVAX Update (Responding to Some Requests)
I wrote this in response to a comment on a previous update, but I'm publishing this here because some others have requested an update as well.
Remember: I'm just some dude on the internet and I'm not a financial advisor. So please keep that in mind.
For me, personally, NVAX is a patience game. I have no idea on timing.
Structurally, I think the NVAX chart looks great. But, in my experience, a few other things need to fall in line before NVAX can take its next big leg up. Historically, NVAX needs a "risk-on" environment in equities in order to expand.
(1) I think we'll need to see expansion in the Russell 2000. So far, the S&P 500 has expanded and the DOW has expanded, but the Russell 2000 has not. Also: the expansions in the S&P and the DOW have largely been consolidated into the largest companies in those indexes. Expansion in the Russell 2000 will signal a more "risk-on" environment in equities, which is one of the necessary (if not sufficient) conditions for NVAX to send upward.
(2) I think we'd also like to see the DXY break down below 106 and stay there for a while. In my experience, "risk-on" doesn't generally happen when the DXY is above 106. (NOTE: Since I wrote this, the DXY has broken down below 104, which is a good sign in my humble opinion. I'd like to see it continue breaking down and stay down for a while.)
(3) Gold is still really high. This is another indication that "risk-off" is prevailing in equities. In my experience, the Gold price will need to break down from these highs to indicate a "risk-on" environment.
So, again, I think the structure of the NVAX chart looks great. I personally believe the bottom has long been in, we've seen textbook Wyckoff accumulation and then a textbook reaccumulation. Now, for me, it's a waiting game. When will a "risk-on" environment emerge? I don't know. But I don't think we'll be stuck in "risk-off" environment forever. It might take a month and it might take two or three years. I have no clue.
My personal bias is that it's coming sooner rather than later, but it might also be very short-lived.
Again, I'm just some guy on the internet.
Remember: I'm just some dude on the internet and I'm not a financial advisor. So please keep that in mind.
For me, personally, NVAX is a patience game. I have no idea on timing.
Structurally, I think the NVAX chart looks great. But, in my experience, a few other things need to fall in line before NVAX can take its next big leg up. Historically, NVAX needs a "risk-on" environment in equities in order to expand.
(1) I think we'll need to see expansion in the Russell 2000. So far, the S&P 500 has expanded and the DOW has expanded, but the Russell 2000 has not. Also: the expansions in the S&P and the DOW have largely been consolidated into the largest companies in those indexes. Expansion in the Russell 2000 will signal a more "risk-on" environment in equities, which is one of the necessary (if not sufficient) conditions for NVAX to send upward.
(2) I think we'd also like to see the DXY break down below 106 and stay there for a while. In my experience, "risk-on" doesn't generally happen when the DXY is above 106. (NOTE: Since I wrote this, the DXY has broken down below 104, which is a good sign in my humble opinion. I'd like to see it continue breaking down and stay down for a while.)
(3) Gold is still really high. This is another indication that "risk-off" is prevailing in equities. In my experience, the Gold price will need to break down from these highs to indicate a "risk-on" environment.
So, again, I think the structure of the NVAX chart looks great. I personally believe the bottom has long been in, we've seen textbook Wyckoff accumulation and then a textbook reaccumulation. Now, for me, it's a waiting game. When will a "risk-on" environment emerge? I don't know. But I don't think we'll be stuck in "risk-off" environment forever. It might take a month and it might take two or three years. I have no clue.
My personal bias is that it's coming sooner rather than later, but it might also be very short-lived.
Again, I'm just some guy on the internet.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.