NVIDIA (NVDA) just got rejected at the top of a falling wedge channel on the 1H chart and is showing clear signs of continued bearish pressure. After testing a key resistance around the $102–$103 zone, price has sharply reversed and is now threatening to revisit lower trendline levels.
Market Structure & SMC Insight:
* NVDA remains in a strong downtrend with price confined in a descending wedge.
* There was no confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) or BOS (Break of Structure) indicating strength—only a lower high rejection.
* A red resistance zone remains around $103.70, while major support lies around $86.74.
* MACD is curling down after a bearish cross.
* Stoch RSI is pointing lower from the mid-zone, signaling more downside may be ahead.
* Volume has increased on this rejection, giving the move more credibility.
TrendInfo Sentiment Summary:
* MA: Bearish (-2.21%)
* DMI: Bearish (38.33)
* RSI, MACD, Stoch: All showing bearish confirmation.
* DPR (Directional Pressure Ratio): Bearish (43.5%)
* Fear & Greed: Fear (-15.78), overall Sell rating of 75%.
This suggests that short-term traders are risk-off and sentiment is skewed toward more downside.
Options GEX Analysis (Gamma Exposure & Sentiment):
* Current GEX shows strong PUT dominance at 28%, aligning with a bearish directional expectation.
* IV Rank (IVR) at 107.2 with IVx avg at 108.7 indicates high volatility; premiums are rich, great for credit spreads or directional put plays.
* Key Put Support at $90 with heavy GEX clustering below. This is your downside magnet.
* Call resistance sits near $102–$105 range, aligning with the recent rejection. Gamma walls at $108–$111 cap the upside.
Trade Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario:
* Rejection confirmed. If NVDA breaks $94 again, a fast drop to $90 and even $86 support is on the table.
* Put Options with strikes at $90 or debit spreads can work well.
* Watch for continuation volume confirmation.
Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability for Now):
* Needs a reclaim of $103.70 with volume.
* A CHoCH + strong bullish candle would trigger potential upside targets of $108 and $111.
* Call debit spreads or long shares only if reversal is confirmed.
My Thoughts: NVDA continues to reflect sector-wide weakness in semis. Without strong market support, the path of least resistance remains down. Given the macro volatility and sentiment tilt toward fear, it's wise to position conservatively and trade with tight risk.
Final Suggestion:
* Put Bias Active
* Avoid heavy call exposure unless reclaim of $103 occurs
* Sell premium if IV stays elevated (e.g. credit spreads)
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Market Structure & SMC Insight:
* NVDA remains in a strong downtrend with price confined in a descending wedge.
* There was no confirmed CHoCH (Change of Character) or BOS (Break of Structure) indicating strength—only a lower high rejection.
* A red resistance zone remains around $103.70, while major support lies around $86.74.
* MACD is curling down after a bearish cross.
* Stoch RSI is pointing lower from the mid-zone, signaling more downside may be ahead.
* Volume has increased on this rejection, giving the move more credibility.
TrendInfo Sentiment Summary:
* MA: Bearish (-2.21%)
* DMI: Bearish (38.33)
* RSI, MACD, Stoch: All showing bearish confirmation.
* DPR (Directional Pressure Ratio): Bearish (43.5%)
* Fear & Greed: Fear (-15.78), overall Sell rating of 75%.
This suggests that short-term traders are risk-off and sentiment is skewed toward more downside.
Options GEX Analysis (Gamma Exposure & Sentiment):
* Current GEX shows strong PUT dominance at 28%, aligning with a bearish directional expectation.
* IV Rank (IVR) at 107.2 with IVx avg at 108.7 indicates high volatility; premiums are rich, great for credit spreads or directional put plays.
* Key Put Support at $90 with heavy GEX clustering below. This is your downside magnet.
* Call resistance sits near $102–$105 range, aligning with the recent rejection. Gamma walls at $108–$111 cap the upside.
Trade Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario:
* Rejection confirmed. If NVDA breaks $94 again, a fast drop to $90 and even $86 support is on the table.
* Put Options with strikes at $90 or debit spreads can work well.
* Watch for continuation volume confirmation.
Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability for Now):
* Needs a reclaim of $103.70 with volume.
* A CHoCH + strong bullish candle would trigger potential upside targets of $108 and $111.
* Call debit spreads or long shares only if reversal is confirmed.
My Thoughts: NVDA continues to reflect sector-wide weakness in semis. Without strong market support, the path of least resistance remains down. Given the macro volatility and sentiment tilt toward fear, it's wise to position conservatively and trade with tight risk.
Final Suggestion:
* Put Bias Active
* Avoid heavy call exposure unless reclaim of $103 occurs
* Sell premium if IV stays elevated (e.g. credit spreads)
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.