NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few.
Updated
NVIDIA's price action last week was a historic event in the markets, and at a very strange time. Whenever you see such an outlier, it's time to perk up and really give a deep think to what's going on in the world at large.
For me, I had long since anticipated NVIDIA would print a new ATH, but I did not believe it would do it until the markets at large had started to moon, which I stated in a March call, which turned out to be pretty accurate.
NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire Worthless
The fact that a megacap could take out the November of 2021 highs before the Fed started hiking is extremely indicative of what's going on, namely that the indexes and the market at large are sure to follow.
I've heard some pretty good theories that NVIDIA being able to do what it's done has a lot to do with Chinese Communist Party entities running a "boomerang" through Cayman Islands-based proxies that are shuffling liquidity through big enterprises like the US banks located in Hong Kong.
NVIDIA also reportedly relies on Taiwan-based TSMC to make its processors, and right now, Taiwan is the springboard for the western globalist interests to attempt to take control of Mainland China when the CCP collapses in the upcoming future.
The Party has recently stated that the mainland is scheduled to get hit up by 60 million new cases ***per week*** of the nouveau variant of the Omicron version of the Wuhan-originating Coronavirus Disease, and yet the Communist Party is not reporting any hard figures on case counts and death through the global faucets, and has not since Xi dropped the Zero COVID social credit scheme in January.
And on top of that is the soon-to-be 24 year long persecution of Falun Dafa by Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai faction combining with the CCP itself, a persecution that targeted 100 million people and committed the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting.
The sin of the persecution is so enormous that once brought into the public eye, no matter who you are in this world, you'll be brought down as retribution for evil.
So there's a lot to watch out for in geopolitical tensions, and a lot at play. The biggest thing right now is that the markets are set to pump to provide people with a new distraction as they try, once again, to get rich, and quick, instead of paying attention to what is important in life.
Everyone is now convinced that NVIDIA is unshortable, and some are even looking for a mild pullback to go long on the "parabolic trend line."
Frankly speaking, there's a lot of risk in buying ATHs when you're dealing with something governed by a clever MM, and if the Q2 ER scam doesn't convince you that NVIDIA's MM is clever, "Sorry, I don't have time to explain it to you."
In making this call, I would like to say that NVIDIA going parabolic is pretty likely.
I'd also like to say that some formation like this, which we saw on Sun Microsystems in the Dotcom bubble, is also pretty likely:
If the Sun fractal is valid, then this call is invalid. How it would play out is kind of like what Boeing did in 2018-19:
Or what BTC CME Futures has already done
Meaning that shorting will remain extremely risky, but going long won't necessarily have any opportunities to meaningfully pay.
However, if the MMS are intending to conduct a turtle soup into a three drives/three Indians pattern, you do actually have the opportunity to Shortgod the top, get long at the bottom, and collect an even bigger trade.
What this would involve is that starting in June NVDIA begins to retrace, and if it were to be so, it would likely retrace with a consistency that is as good as selling volatility has been in the last 9 months.
It would refill the May gap completely, and rebalance the unbalanced March gap, which coincides with the recent market structure's range equilibrium at $250 and the week of April 24's pivot.
Many have said that the debt ceiling crisis being resolved by the Federal government often results in a stock market crash since the market has to absorb all the new TBonds that the Treasury has to issue to keep the government afloat.
If you couple that with how the market didn't go down at all during the debt ceiling crisis itself, a bear impulse appears more and more likely.
If it were to do this, NVIDIA would also never print a $1 trillion market capitalization despite being so close.
NVDIA likely would quickly bounce at this point and then the target would be one standard deviation above the May high, coming in at $540, which would also take the psychological $500 level.
Doing this will encourage and trap bears all the way down, and then slaughter bulls over $500. Doing this will slaughter the bulls that have already bought the top, and at present, the bears have literally all been killed.
Projected time frame for this to happen would be something like a September bottom and the top would come in the middle of '24 with the next U.S. Presidential Election on the horizon.
Of course, that assumes that the world remains in good enough shape to be stable in any way a year from now.
I do not have conviction that this will be the case it will play out, but I wanted to post this theory because the timing, logic, and price action all support it strongly, and it's the one scenario that nobody is considering, which also happens to generate a lot of alpha if you can get on top of it.
For me, I had long since anticipated NVIDIA would print a new ATH, but I did not believe it would do it until the markets at large had started to moon, which I stated in a March call, which turned out to be pretty accurate.
NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire Worthless
The fact that a megacap could take out the November of 2021 highs before the Fed started hiking is extremely indicative of what's going on, namely that the indexes and the market at large are sure to follow.
I've heard some pretty good theories that NVIDIA being able to do what it's done has a lot to do with Chinese Communist Party entities running a "boomerang" through Cayman Islands-based proxies that are shuffling liquidity through big enterprises like the US banks located in Hong Kong.
NVIDIA also reportedly relies on Taiwan-based TSMC to make its processors, and right now, Taiwan is the springboard for the western globalist interests to attempt to take control of Mainland China when the CCP collapses in the upcoming future.
The Party has recently stated that the mainland is scheduled to get hit up by 60 million new cases ***per week*** of the nouveau variant of the Omicron version of the Wuhan-originating Coronavirus Disease, and yet the Communist Party is not reporting any hard figures on case counts and death through the global faucets, and has not since Xi dropped the Zero COVID social credit scheme in January.
And on top of that is the soon-to-be 24 year long persecution of Falun Dafa by Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai faction combining with the CCP itself, a persecution that targeted 100 million people and committed the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting.
The sin of the persecution is so enormous that once brought into the public eye, no matter who you are in this world, you'll be brought down as retribution for evil.
So there's a lot to watch out for in geopolitical tensions, and a lot at play. The biggest thing right now is that the markets are set to pump to provide people with a new distraction as they try, once again, to get rich, and quick, instead of paying attention to what is important in life.
Everyone is now convinced that NVIDIA is unshortable, and some are even looking for a mild pullback to go long on the "parabolic trend line."
Frankly speaking, there's a lot of risk in buying ATHs when you're dealing with something governed by a clever MM, and if the Q2 ER scam doesn't convince you that NVIDIA's MM is clever, "Sorry, I don't have time to explain it to you."
In making this call, I would like to say that NVIDIA going parabolic is pretty likely.
I'd also like to say that some formation like this, which we saw on Sun Microsystems in the Dotcom bubble, is also pretty likely:
If the Sun fractal is valid, then this call is invalid. How it would play out is kind of like what Boeing did in 2018-19:
Or what BTC CME Futures has already done
Meaning that shorting will remain extremely risky, but going long won't necessarily have any opportunities to meaningfully pay.
However, if the MMS are intending to conduct a turtle soup into a three drives/three Indians pattern, you do actually have the opportunity to Shortgod the top, get long at the bottom, and collect an even bigger trade.
What this would involve is that starting in June NVDIA begins to retrace, and if it were to be so, it would likely retrace with a consistency that is as good as selling volatility has been in the last 9 months.
It would refill the May gap completely, and rebalance the unbalanced March gap, which coincides with the recent market structure's range equilibrium at $250 and the week of April 24's pivot.
Many have said that the debt ceiling crisis being resolved by the Federal government often results in a stock market crash since the market has to absorb all the new TBonds that the Treasury has to issue to keep the government afloat.
If you couple that with how the market didn't go down at all during the debt ceiling crisis itself, a bear impulse appears more and more likely.
If it were to do this, NVIDIA would also never print a $1 trillion market capitalization despite being so close.
NVDIA likely would quickly bounce at this point and then the target would be one standard deviation above the May high, coming in at $540, which would also take the psychological $500 level.
Doing this will encourage and trap bears all the way down, and then slaughter bulls over $500. Doing this will slaughter the bulls that have already bought the top, and at present, the bears have literally all been killed.
Projected time frame for this to happen would be something like a September bottom and the top would come in the middle of '24 with the next U.S. Presidential Election on the horizon.
Of course, that assumes that the world remains in good enough shape to be stable in any way a year from now.
I do not have conviction that this will be the case it will play out, but I wanted to post this theory because the timing, logic, and price action all support it strongly, and it's the one scenario that nobody is considering, which also happens to generate a lot of alpha if you can get on top of it.
Note
One fella pointed out the 2020 fractal, and there is that precedent there.That was a 45% retrace in the two digit era. Since the scams are thick and deep, NVDIA being presented as a 2T MCap wouldn't be one bit surprising BECAUSE AI.
Note
NVDA's worth 
1T according to the Grade 3 math calculation that is Market Cap.Really, don't buy tops and don't be afraid to short stuff that's deep outside the Bollingers.
Note
Yes, you really can short NVDIA now. But the first area you have to be concerned with is a rebalance of the $366 gap.
Algos like to touch it and then go back up or touch it and then make a new high.
But either way if you shorted yesterday there's still a ~8% gain if you were just to scalp.
Evolving situations require a flexible attitude, approach, and standpoint.
Note
LULU Lululemon is a pretty good example of the reality that an equity _can_ fill in a big ER gap, even if it screws around above the old highs for a few days first.Note
Really notable on this trade is that NVDIA took its post-ER high on the back of FOMC absurdity, but still has not rebalanced the gap created by its earnings call.A short just to touch the gap represents 18% and almost $60 per share.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.