NZDCHF has formed a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern on the 4H chart, with price currently hovering above the neckline at 0.4840. The technical breakout remains valid, with bullish targets at:
TP1: 0.4993
TP2: 0.5078
SL: Below 0.4740
🧠 Fundamental Update – NZ Trade Balance (Apr 21):
Latest Data:
Actual: +80M
Forecast: +510M
Previous: +510M
✅ Still positive, but below expectations
⚠️ Weaker-than-expected trade surplus may weigh on NZD short-term
Combined With Recent CPI Data (Apr 16):
Inflation rose to 2.5% YoY, higher than forecast but still within the RBNZ's target band
Most price pressures are seen as temporary (fuel, education)
RBNZ cut OCR to 3.5% in April and has left the door open to further cuts
Markets still fully price in a rate cut on May 28, with a projected floor of 2.75% by October
🌏 Global Context:
Trade tensions and slowing global growth (esp. from U.S. tariff risk) are driving demand for safe havens like CHF
ANZ economists have revised forecasts for additional RBNZ easing to 2.5%, citing weak global sentiment
🧭 Interpretation for NZDCHF:
Short-term:
✅ Positive technical structure
✅ Net trade surplus supports slight NZD demand
⚠️ Trade miss and dovish RBNZ tone keep bullish momentum cautious
Medium-term:
⚠️ Macro headwinds + expected RBNZ cut may limit upside
⚠️ Potential pullbacks if rate-cut sentiment strengthens into May
💡 Final Trade Strategy:
Bullish bias valid above 0.4840, but watch for volatility
Profit-taking recommended at 0.4993
Be cautious near 0.5078, especially before the May 28 RBNZ meeting
A close below 0.4740 would invalidate the bullish setup
TP1: 0.4993
TP2: 0.5078
SL: Below 0.4740
🧠 Fundamental Update – NZ Trade Balance (Apr 21):
Latest Data:
Actual: +80M
Forecast: +510M
Previous: +510M
✅ Still positive, but below expectations
⚠️ Weaker-than-expected trade surplus may weigh on NZD short-term
Combined With Recent CPI Data (Apr 16):
Inflation rose to 2.5% YoY, higher than forecast but still within the RBNZ's target band
Most price pressures are seen as temporary (fuel, education)
RBNZ cut OCR to 3.5% in April and has left the door open to further cuts
Markets still fully price in a rate cut on May 28, with a projected floor of 2.75% by October
🌏 Global Context:
Trade tensions and slowing global growth (esp. from U.S. tariff risk) are driving demand for safe havens like CHF
ANZ economists have revised forecasts for additional RBNZ easing to 2.5%, citing weak global sentiment
🧭 Interpretation for NZDCHF:
Short-term:
✅ Positive technical structure
✅ Net trade surplus supports slight NZD demand
⚠️ Trade miss and dovish RBNZ tone keep bullish momentum cautious
Medium-term:
⚠️ Macro headwinds + expected RBNZ cut may limit upside
⚠️ Potential pullbacks if rate-cut sentiment strengthens into May
💡 Final Trade Strategy:
Bullish bias valid above 0.4840, but watch for volatility
Profit-taking recommended at 0.4993
Be cautious near 0.5078, especially before the May 28 RBNZ meeting
A close below 0.4740 would invalidate the bullish setup
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🥇95% Accurate Signals
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✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
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🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
Get VIP - ultreosforex.com/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.