USDCNH, AUDUSD and NZDUSD: Don't fade an uptrend
Updated
In this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start.
AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it.
It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does.
NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join.
CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side.
Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis.
I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it.
It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does.
NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join.
CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side.
Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis.
I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
(I forgot to mention, I'm short USDCNH from 6.5166, and flat AUDUSD for now)Note
Added to long/short.Note
Ideal reentry for USDCNH would be around 6.5.Note
Reshorted usdcnh near 6.48. Went long audusd yesterday (Sunday in my country)Note
All trades progressing as expected. Trends last longer than everyone expects. Try to rejoin, or join in any good spot if not in. Don't get caught up fading momentum runs, it's simply not a good habit.Note
I said it, don't short an uptrend.
🔒Want to dive deeper? Check out my paid services below🔒
ivanlabrie.substack.com/
ivanlabrie.substack.com/
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.