This coming week , there are plenty of setups that look promising. The Highlight of my weekend analysis is NZDUSD. This pair has broken a very significant 4H & Daily level of resistance just below the 0.64000 level. This strong rally to the upside was influenced by the aggressive fall of the 
USDOLLAR USDollar Index.
For the earlier part of this week, we are expecting a temporary 1H & 4H retracement before the long term trend continues bullish in the latter part of the week. We are hoping to place long positions at the 0.62500 psychological level- where there is also a fair value gap (imbalance) from the 1H & 4H timeframe. As a confirmation of direction, the 120 period moving average acts as a very stable support as can be seen by the previous price rejections. That means, as long as the price remains above the moving average, we will most likely continue bullish.
At this point, we cannot use a Fibonacci retracement tool or assess price action because the market is not at our area of interest yet. I'd love to hear what other people think about this pair so leave your thoughts. Till next time!
USDOLLAR USDollar Index.For the earlier part of this week, we are expecting a temporary 1H & 4H retracement before the long term trend continues bullish in the latter part of the week. We are hoping to place long positions at the 0.62500 psychological level- where there is also a fair value gap (imbalance) from the 1H & 4H timeframe. As a confirmation of direction, the 120 period moving average acts as a very stable support as can be seen by the previous price rejections. That means, as long as the price remains above the moving average, we will most likely continue bullish.
At this point, we cannot use a Fibonacci retracement tool or assess price action because the market is not at our area of interest yet. I'd love to hear what other people think about this pair so leave your thoughts. Till next time!
Note
Trading range was way too Big, the risk? Just a lot. The trade might have been justified by technicals, But what does the plan say about risk? What are the risk parameters of the business model. How do we limit risk on high probability setups? This is what we came up with:
1. If the market has a big trading range, This means that there's is an increased chance of long term momentum in the direction of the potential retracement . A developing trend might form and invalidate the setup while exposing you to a big risk if your area of value is invalidated. With all this in mind. the solution is to wait for a stricture shift of the developing trend then take an entry where the developing trend is moving in a similar direction to the primary trend.
2. If there is more than one area of value. If there is more than one area of value within a considerable distance from each other. We employ a tactic called risk diversification- where we don't put all our risk at one point in the market, but instead split the risk evenly between the two areas. this preserves capital because it gives the trader a second chance at entry if the market fails on that area. even if the market invalidated the second area, The loss would be that of a single position rather than two separate positions with a similar risk profile.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.