NZDUSD – Recovery or Just a Bull Trap? All Eyes on PCE This Week
🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
After the FOMC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the US Dollar has shown signs of recovery driven by expectations that core inflation remains persistent — especially ahead of the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index release this Friday.
On the New Zealand side, the Kiwi remains under pressure due to recent weak economic data and negative sentiment from China — its largest trading partner. The RBNZ continues to maintain a neutral stance, offering little support for the currency in the near term.
Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await the PCE data to determine inflation trends and potential Fed policy shifts.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1–H2 TIMEFRAME)
NZDUSD is forming a technical rebound after a strong bearish leg from the 0.60300 region. Current price is trading around the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5964–0.5976), struggling to break above EMA89 and EMA200 resistance.
Overall structure: Bearish bias remains intact with lower highs.
EMA alignment: EMA13, EMA34, and EMA89 are in bearish formation.
Key support zone: 0.5926–0.5940, trendline confluence + consolidation base.
🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance:
0.5976 – Fibonacci 0.5 retracement + previous rejection zone
0.5990 – Structural resistance of the week
0.6007 – 78.6% Fib + liquidity sweep potential
Support:
0.5940 – Trendline retest + short-term structure
0.5926 – Key demand zone with previous fake breakout
🎯 TRADE IDEAS
SELL SETUP – Fade the pullback into resistance:
Entry: 0.5976 – 0.5990
Stop Loss: 0.6010
Take Profit: 0.5940 → 0.5926
BUY SCALP – On strong bullish rejection from support:
Entry: 0.5926 – 0.5930
Stop Loss: 0.5900
Take Profit: 0.5960 → 0.5976
Note: Confirm with bullish candlestick and volume spike before entry.
⚠️ STRATEGY OUTLOOK
NZDUSD remains in a corrective phase. This week’s PCE inflation data will be critical. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD and push NZDUSD below 0.5926, resuming the medium-term downtrend.
Avoid chasing mid-range price action. Focus on price reactions near the key resistance and support levels.
🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
After the FOMC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the US Dollar has shown signs of recovery driven by expectations that core inflation remains persistent — especially ahead of the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index release this Friday.
On the New Zealand side, the Kiwi remains under pressure due to recent weak economic data and negative sentiment from China — its largest trading partner. The RBNZ continues to maintain a neutral stance, offering little support for the currency in the near term.
Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await the PCE data to determine inflation trends and potential Fed policy shifts.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1–H2 TIMEFRAME)
NZDUSD is forming a technical rebound after a strong bearish leg from the 0.60300 region. Current price is trading around the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5964–0.5976), struggling to break above EMA89 and EMA200 resistance.
Overall structure: Bearish bias remains intact with lower highs.
EMA alignment: EMA13, EMA34, and EMA89 are in bearish formation.
Key support zone: 0.5926–0.5940, trendline confluence + consolidation base.
🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance:
0.5976 – Fibonacci 0.5 retracement + previous rejection zone
0.5990 – Structural resistance of the week
0.6007 – 78.6% Fib + liquidity sweep potential
Support:
0.5940 – Trendline retest + short-term structure
0.5926 – Key demand zone with previous fake breakout
🎯 TRADE IDEAS
SELL SETUP – Fade the pullback into resistance:
Entry: 0.5976 – 0.5990
Stop Loss: 0.6010
Take Profit: 0.5940 → 0.5926
BUY SCALP – On strong bullish rejection from support:
Entry: 0.5926 – 0.5930
Stop Loss: 0.5900
Take Profit: 0.5960 → 0.5976
Note: Confirm with bullish candlestick and volume spike before entry.
⚠️ STRATEGY OUTLOOK
NZDUSD remains in a corrective phase. This week’s PCE inflation data will be critical. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD and push NZDUSD below 0.5926, resuming the medium-term downtrend.
Avoid chasing mid-range price action. Focus on price reactions near the key resistance and support levels.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
⚜️ Trade with Money Market Flow, logic, Price action 📉📈
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
⚜️Risk Reward 1.3 to 2.5...
⚜️Daily 8 to 15 Signals Vip
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.