NZ dollar eyes Fed meet, New Zealand GDP
Federal Reserve meetings are traditionally predictable affairs and don’t move the needle of the financial markets. Fed decision makers signal their intentions ahead of time in order to minimize market volatility. Today’s decision is up in the air and it remains unclear what the Fed is going to deliver – will it be a modest 25-basis point cut or a jumbo 50-bps slash? Market pricing of today’s cut has been swinging wildly, which could result in volatility after the decision.
The Fed has maintained a stance of ‘higher for longer’ for over a year and has brought down inflation close to the 2% target. The expectation not long ago was that the Fed would kick off the new rate-tightening cycle with a traditional 25-bps cut.
What has complicated matters is the recent deterioration in the US labor market. Job growth has fallen sharply and spooked the markets, with fears that the US economy could fall into a recession. The darkening employment picture has boosted the likelihood of a 50-bps cut, but such a deep cut could send a signal that the economy is in deep trouble and unnerve investors.
The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, which will signal the expected rate path over the next few years as well as updated economic forecasts. The Fed is expected to be aggressive in its rate cuts, now that inflation is largely beaten and the employment picture has deteriorated.
Overshadowed by the dramatic Fed meeting, New Zealand will release second-quarter GDP early on Thursday. The markets are bracing for a contraction in growth. In the first quarter, the economy showed slight growth of 0.2% q/q and 0.3% y/y. This is expected to fall to -0.4% q/q and -0.5% y/y.
NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6199. Above, there is resistance at 0.6240
There is support at 0.6153 and 0.6112
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