OMGUSD on the back of OMGBTC. Key decision time coming soon....
Updated
Whilst I buy the opportunity in OMGUSD, the important chart for me is the bottom OMGBTC as this is what is driving my technical analysis.
I tend to go to BTC and cash during corrections to make it easier to manage and it has historically performed best out of all the coins in these times. As the correction *potentially* begins to end, I want to know if I'm best in BTC or other coins. I'm interested in trading coins where I can see long term trends and typically where I also believe in the fundamentals. You can read this post 500% return and 5 other reasons you should buy OMG to see why I'm a believer in the fundamentals of OMG and still hold OMG in my core holdings.
OMG is at a very interesting point relative to BTC. It has been through a wave of growth, contraction and then a shorter wave of growth again, not reaching its high from the first wave and is now consolidating. The question I ask myself is whether we are in a five wave growth or contraction impulse relative to BTC.
OMGBTC Growth impulse (shown in black numbers)
We are part way through the third wave and likely to go to 1.272, 1.414 or 1.618 of wave 1 which are 0.0036, 0.0041 and 0.005 respectively.
OMGBTC Contraction impulse (shown in red numbers)
We have completed the 2nd wave and have just started the third wave and likely to go lower than the low of the 1st wave (0.0005).
My plan
My conviction is that we are in a growth impulse wave but I want to be more sure about this before I take more long positions. Whilst there are other wave combination possibilities, the OMGUSD chart suggests we are in a wave 3. We can't have topped that and be in a wave 4 because wave 1 and 4 can not overlap.
We have a down trendline from near the ATH which we are bouncing along at the moment and which is forming a bull flag/pendant. If this should break up, I would feel more confident we are in a growth impulse. Although we wouldn't be sure until wave 1 top is broken, I will be looking to enter should we break up out of this bull flag (subject to what is happening with the correction). Using the height of the the flag, I have a target of 0.0028, which coincides with the top of wave 1. My stop would be the bottom of the flag.
We could also be in a massive bull flag, with Wave 1 as the pole and the green dotted support line as the bottom of the flag. I have marked this pole in the transparent orange. I will therefore continue to hold my core position even if we break down out of this flag but remain above this lower diagonal support level.
I tend to go to BTC and cash during corrections to make it easier to manage and it has historically performed best out of all the coins in these times. As the correction *potentially* begins to end, I want to know if I'm best in BTC or other coins. I'm interested in trading coins where I can see long term trends and typically where I also believe in the fundamentals. You can read this post 500% return and 5 other reasons you should buy OMG to see why I'm a believer in the fundamentals of OMG and still hold OMG in my core holdings.
OMG is at a very interesting point relative to BTC. It has been through a wave of growth, contraction and then a shorter wave of growth again, not reaching its high from the first wave and is now consolidating. The question I ask myself is whether we are in a five wave growth or contraction impulse relative to BTC.
OMGBTC Growth impulse (shown in black numbers)
We are part way through the third wave and likely to go to 1.272, 1.414 or 1.618 of wave 1 which are 0.0036, 0.0041 and 0.005 respectively.
OMGBTC Contraction impulse (shown in red numbers)
We have completed the 2nd wave and have just started the third wave and likely to go lower than the low of the 1st wave (0.0005).
My plan
My conviction is that we are in a growth impulse wave but I want to be more sure about this before I take more long positions. Whilst there are other wave combination possibilities, the OMGUSD chart suggests we are in a wave 3. We can't have topped that and be in a wave 4 because wave 1 and 4 can not overlap.
We have a down trendline from near the ATH which we are bouncing along at the moment and which is forming a bull flag/pendant. If this should break up, I would feel more confident we are in a growth impulse. Although we wouldn't be sure until wave 1 top is broken, I will be looking to enter should we break up out of this bull flag (subject to what is happening with the correction). Using the height of the the flag, I have a target of 0.0028, which coincides with the top of wave 1. My stop would be the bottom of the flag.
We could also be in a massive bull flag, with Wave 1 as the pole and the green dotted support line as the bottom of the flag. I have marked this pole in the transparent orange. I will therefore continue to hold my core position even if we break down out of this flag but remain above this lower diagonal support level.
Note
We've had the initial breakout of the OMGBTC bear and it has held the 4HR close. I'm a few things: - If I'm already bought in, I typically like to see a retrace and rejection of the breakout area but sometimes I go long a small position and start averaging in.
- I'd like to see what happens with BTC today. If it fails at its neckline break, it's not clear what effect this will have on it and the ALT coins.
I know I'm missing opportunities with some of the risk adverse decisions BUT that is why I like to buy into the BIG picture with localised trades. The BIG picture makes little difference when I get in. However, to manage risk, including a reversal I'd rather either get in later on a clear bull run OR get in once the breakout is more solidified following a retrace and rejection.
Trade active
I bought a small bit on the back of BTCUSD H&S break looks to have rejected the retrace. Main trade still yet to come once I see what happens with OMGBTC as discussed above.Note
OMG doing well against BTC which is driving its USD price up. A retrace and test of the previous downtrend was rejected, this gives me real confidence that it will continue its gains against BTC and USD.
It is now testing the 0.5 Fib (0.0017) again. I'll now look to buy in further, with a pull back from here or a break of it and a retrace that rejects.
Note
OMG looking very strong against BTC, creating a number of supports and posting high lows, which typically result in higher highs.Supports:
6HR 50EMA
Diagonal upward line formed since 6 Feb
I expect it to challenge the local high at 0.0018 again soon.
Whilst all this support remains in tack, I continue to top up on any short retraces
Note
Well this is working out well!The structure around OMGBTC and OMGUSD is looking absolutely brilliant. In both cases it is clear to see that we are entering the wave three of a super cycle wave 3. I expect this to be explosive and extended.
Sorry that these charts are a bit messy, but hopefully you can see the key message on it.
OMGBTC Wave 3 of a super cycle wave III.
Close up view of the wave count
OMGUSD supporting the same wave III. You'll note an unusual corrective wave II. This can not have been a third wave because it retraced past II. This structure is an expanded flat.
Close up view of the wave count
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.