ONTBTC - Consolidation Before Flag Breakout?
Updated
Big question at the moment - Can it keep climbing? Not much history to rely on and the risk of a correction is present. However, with each day we obtain more information that could hint at what could come. I had been looking at shorter time intervals, but here looking at the 4H Interval and the RSI and MAC D appear to show a general trend up. The recent consolidation of the flag is causing a return to the trend lines on the RSI and MAC D. It appears that this consolidation could a take 12-16 hours before we see the return to the trend lines and then potentially breakout again. In the interim, the .736 fib retracement level has recently been acting as support over the last few hours. This will need to hold up in order to prevent a break down from the flag pattern while consolidation takes place.
The riskier move would get in around the bottom of the flag pattern above the .736 fib retracement level at about 0.0004200, with a stop loss just below it. However,the more risk adverse play would be to wait until the RSI and MACD trend lines are back in play before making any moves and to look for the bounce first.
Target is set out based on the size of the pole between 0.0007000 and 0.0007500.
Anyone agree or disagree? Welcoming criticism here.
The riskier move would get in around the bottom of the flag pattern above the .736 fib retracement level at about 0.0004200, with a stop loss just below it. However,the more risk adverse play would be to wait until the RSI and MACD trend lines are back in play before making any moves and to look for the bounce first.
Target is set out based on the size of the pole between 0.0007000 and 0.0007500.
Anyone agree or disagree? Welcoming criticism here.
Note
Reversal looking imminent as the H&S shoulders pattern pops off the screen. However, it is possible the RSI trend line provides the much needed support prior to completion of the H&S pattern. We saw a bounce last night off the RSI support line at 50. Will it act as support again? Or will it give way completing a H&S reversal. The only way to invalidate the H&S pattern is to reach a new ATH. So until that happens, this looks a bit too risky.
Note
Its close. I am hanging in there, but now relying on a shorter interval for the time being to get a read on whether we are headed back to the neckline. Found some resistance from an recent RSI trend line. It could hold up and push the right shoulder over the head, voiding the pattern and breaking out from the symmetrical triangle at the same time which would be a nice breakout. See target posted. Note
Things are getting more interesting. It broke pretty strong resistance at 56000 at the top of the triangle. Then it fell back down and found support on top of the triangle. Resistance often turns into support. Now it is climbing towards the head which happens to be the all time high (the black line). Expect more resistance, but if it pierces that level then it could run to the target breakout seen in the previous update photo at around 75000. Keep watching that short term 30 minute interval RSI for continued support. Its held up twice today. Note
Another update. Looking to the RSI to provide the bounce needed to retest the resistance at the ATH. If the RSI trend fails to provide the support, then we likely fall back into the triangle and this brief breakout will be considered a failed breakout attempt. The triangle pattern, its resistances and support, would come back into play.Note
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