Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
Long
Updated

Quick flip idea - long at 181.26

102
Today was a rough day for the market, but rough days are opportunities. Days like this require confidence in what you do, though. For me, confidence comes from data. Could there be more downside ahead? Yep. Taking the time to mine data to understand whether what you are doing has been successful in past circumstances where corrections have been involved helps me trade with confidence in these situations.

Since May of 2022, this particular setup is 20-1 and has an average return of 1.82% in and average of under 9 trading days. That's over 4x the average daily return of the market overall. Of the 21 trades, all but 3 closed in 6 trading days or less, with 10 of them closing in one day. During that same time, PANW had corrections of 10% or more over a dozen times, and several 20%+ drops. Those results give me confidence that the trade will work out, and more likely than not, do so quickly.

I normally don't trade stocks right after earnings, I usually like to wait 3 days for selling pressure to subside, but this setup has proven successful regardless of the proximity to earnings. In fact, some of its best returns are from just after earnings.

Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.

As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Trade closed: target reached
This is how a quick flip is supposed to work. Closed the position at the end of the day today for a gain of 2.65% in 1 day.
Note
Trade summary for my records

Wins 1 Losses 0

Avg gain per lot = +2.65%
Avg holding period per lot = 1 trading day
Avg gain per lot per day held = +2.65%
Annualized RoR = 2.65% x 252 = +668%

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