"Plebbit": P2P social media, revolutionary gem, low $6.7m mc
Updated
Plebbit is an opensource, free to use and purely peer-to-peer, decentralized, global adminless social media protocol (but there are sub/board specific admins) with an adaptable front end and no HTTPS endpoints or SSL certs, giving ENS, NFTs, DAO, IPFS and pubsub, a long-term usecase to ensure free speech.
Current market cap: ~6m
Circulating supply: 1.49t
Fundamentals:
WHAT IS PLEBBIT?
According to the whitepaper, created in late 2021, Plebbit is a social media protocol that uses no HTTPS endpoints/DNS, no SSL certs and instead uses "public key-based addressing", crypto domains and IPFS/pubsub protocols to create a fully P2P social media design. In other words, it uses similar technology to BitTorrent but for social media.
To run a sub, the sub owner needs to leave their computer on 24/7. Plebbit consists of a downloadable clients (a full node which contribute to client speed through seeding) and the web browser client, which involves leeching off full clients.
The anti-spam measures involve captchas which currently include a standard captchas and karma. According to the dev road map, the challenge will be entirely arbitrary and customizable by the sub-owner (regular captcha, quiz, balance of x token, reputation/karma points etc).
The protocol itself is text-only. Images/video/media are only embedded through links through external websites like Youtube/Odyssey/Imgur etc (not uploaded to the protocol).
Plebbit is currently being used to develop a Reddit, 4chan, Old Reddit (Seedit) and Barebones client. Other front-end style will likely be created by community members in the future like Vbulletin or Discourse etc.
WHY PLEBBIT?
Social media like reddit have become increasingly censorious.
Plebbit solves this by giving full autonomy to the sub/board creator who is the admin of only their sub/board. So long as a board/sub creator runs their full node, then their board/sub is accessible without the hassle of static, public HTTPS endpoints which consumer ISPs rarely provide, nor domain name or SSL cert, which simplifies creating and maintaining a public social forum or community, as the alternative is being a system admin for your own forum website (complicated) or using platforms like reddit (may be censorious).
Plebbit creates an open-source protocol adaptable to any front end style the developer/board creator wants.
Plebbit purports to be serverless and scalable.
Plebbit gives a use case to NFTs (through account profile pictures).
Each individual sub becomes a tradeable NFT that can gain value in proportion to its community value.
Plebbit gives a use case to ENS (and other crypto DNs) as the Plebbit board/sub link can be an ENS. Similarly, usernames can be crypto domains.
Finally, as it is open source, in the future the protocol could be adapted for ads at the sub/board owners discretion meaning each sub/board owner could own 100% of the ad revenue from their specific board or they could choose an ad free browsing experience (as it currently is now).
Plebbit allows for a level of customizability rarely seen (if ever) in social medias (customizable front end, captchas, administration, ads/no ads).
Plebbit is potentially the next paradigm shift in crypto. First, there was BTC (decentralized money/gold). Then, there was ETH (smart contracts). Then there was Chainlink (real world data into SCs). This gave rise to DeFi, NFTs, GameFi etc.
Now there is Plebbit – the first purely P2P social media experience with an adaptable front end, that gives you sovereignty/ownership over your public community. Just as BTC gives you ownership of your money, Plebbit gives you ownership of your public community.
COMPETITORS?
How is this different to Lemmy/federated medias?
According to the developer’s telegram and reddit account, Lemmy/federated social medias are not purely P2P as the admins can arbitrarily store some of your data and delete your acc whereas Plebbit has no global admins to do this. Federated social medias may enable instances to block others from using other instances.
Federated social medias are also complicated, requiring a board/sub owner acquiring a static, public HTTP endpoint, which consumer ISPs rarely provide, a domain name and an SSL cert, which are all vulnerable to censorship and more complicated to set up compared to using the plebbit client which connects to IPFS/pubsub automatically.
DOES PLEBBIT WORK?
The downloadable desktop client (full node) is fast as posting is fully P2P.
However, the web browser client is not a full node (leeches). Resultingly, it is slow, unreliable and captchas do not return instantly.
It will be interesting if developers can implement P2P web browsing or a downloadable android client (full node).
.ETH domains and .SOL domains for usernames and board names work. NFT for username avatars work.
DISADVANTAGES OF PLEBBIT:
The web browser client has poor uptime and captchas may return inconsistently. The downloadable desktop client is much faster. However, mass adoption of a downloadable client is much less likely as many people can’t be bothered downloading computer apps. Therefore, adoption of Plebbit likely depends on whether the devs can optimize the web browser client to be as fast as standard web sites and forums like reddit, vbulletin and discourse.
The token isn’t actually needed for posting as posting is free, which may lower demand for the token (this is arguably also benefit as it will lower the barrier to entry for protocol use).
Token tipping and a DAO for feed curation have not been implemented yet. Note, a tentative toke tipping design was posted on plebbit's github.
The token uses a proxy contract which could rug at the dev's discretion or due to hacks. The dev says this was necessary to implement prior changes such as the airdrop, ending the liquidity mining and enabling the chain swap from avax to eth, and may prove useful in the future. The dev asserted that they are not chain loyal and will switch to whatever chain is most secure and used in the next few years, and expand beyond other ENS, which may need a proxy contract. While a proxy contract is concerning, it seems unlikely that the dev will rug as the dev has already self-funded for 2 years and the github is very active with a technically proven, albeit buggy product.
Scalability claims haven’t been proven as there aren’t enough users.
To run a sub, the sub owner needs to leave their computer on 24/7. If it is not being run, then you cannot comment, however you can still browse, non-updating content. Additionally, according to the devs, if you change your sub from your public address to a ENS, you lose all your prior posts published to your public address (necessitating better backups/archive service/or protocol improvements). Thus, third parties/VCs have the opportunity to create archiving services to archive downed subs for a fee. Finally, in the future, there will probably be services like private RPCs, run by different companies unrelated to Plebbit, that hosts peoples subs for a fee.
TOKENOMICS:
The supply was distributed through airdrops in 2021 on avax (before it migrated to Eth) which were advertised on 4chan and reddit. Later there was liquidity mining (which ended).
The token will be used for tipping and voting to curate the feed through a DAO. However, currently tipping and the DAO haven’t been implemented into the protocol.
FUNDING:
The project is primarily funded by the lead dev, who has already paid 300k in total to the other 3 devs over the past 2+ years of development, according to their github which tracks payments.
Plebbit received small grants from Protocol Labs and Gitcoin.
Technicals:
Earlier this year Plebbit rocketed from (3m mcap to ~16m mcap). After price discovery, a correction occurred after a large bearish divergence on the 1D chart. A descending wedge over April, then ensued.
The day after the local low of ~5.3m mcap, Plebbit experienced a bullish engulfing candle which overcame the previous past 4 days of bearish candles. Additionally, there is now a hidden bullish divergence on the 1D chart. This was followed by a subsequent bearish engulfing on the 4h. Given the significant correction (~67%), this could suggest a bottom is possibly in place, however there is still uncertainty. The close of the monthly should help determine this.
ENTRY:
Given the low holder count (~700), low liquidity, low volume, low market cap and proven, albeit buggy product, I doubt this retests anything under $~5m mcap for long. This is especially true as it has been in accumulation since 2022 (on Avax) and into 2023 on Eth. At the current 6m mcap, Plebbit is well over 50% from ATH which may be a fair buy if you hold long term (1-2 years).
TARGETS: (Assuming 6m mcap)
Conservative prediction 1: If the product doesn’t improve and adoption doesn’t occur = Sept (2024) 12m market cap (x3)
Conservative prediction 2: If product doesn’t improve and adoption doesn’t occur = Dec 2024 30-50m market cap (x5-8)
Liberal prediction 1: If product improves, there are 300+ users + tech media coverage = Dec 2025 100m market cap (x15)
Liberal prediction 2: If product improves, adoption to 1000+ daily users occurs = Dec 2025 300-500m market cap (x50-83)
Liberal prediction 3: If product improves and adoption to 5000 daily daily users occurs + third parties like institutional funds/VCs, create plebbit infrastructure like archive websites, board hosting services, board backup services for a fee = Dec 2026 1bil market cap (x167)
Liberal prediction 4: If product improves and adoption to 10000 daily users occurs + aforementioned institutional fund’s/VC infrastructure = Dec 2027 10bil market cap (x1667)
Benner cycle:
The meme tier “Agriculture Benner cycle” is also worth considering. This stipulates a crash in ~2026. Note, that the Benner cycle is sometimes 1 year premature (the crash may occur end of 2026).
Macro verbal drivel:
The 1-2 years proceeding the halving will likely drag all alts up based on historical price action. If global crypto market cap reaches gold Gold’s 13.1t mcap, with a ~40% BTC dominance, this would create a ~250k BTC by 2026 cycle peak, per the Benner cycle, before entering into a 3y crypto correction, trapping moontards hoping for a mystical 1mm BTC and infinite gains for their shitcoin. A more conservative prediction is ~$100-140k BTC.
Crypto is an emerging asset class and in times of global uncertainty technology performs badly, without the infinite M2 hack. A bearish BTC is further exacerbated by global uncertainty regarding ongoing and potentially exacerbating military and trade wars between the West and East. Finally, the proposed Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act 2023, introduces the legally illusory, constrictions on unhosted wallet providers which strengthens know-your-customer (KYC) for entities like wallet providers and miners. As legislative pressure mounts, crypto bearishness may increase over fears that such legislation is impractical, burdensome and a threat to the cornerstones of the crypto ethos.
However, any bearishness will likely rectify, as market regulations clarify to the tune of retail crypto users parroting their favorite crypto narratives to the sea of curiously amused institutional entities and regulators, who frolic through the revolving door: "freedom", “digital gold”, “be your own bank”, “lessen your vulnerability to bank bail-ins”, only for “institutional adoption” and the myriad of VC funded narratives to be fanatically chanted soon after (“NFTs, NFTs, MemeCoin, MemeCoin, GameFi, oh and DeFi”), the feverish pitch overpowering investor trepidation, as retail and now even institutional investors seek fresh memes, dreams and alternative emerging asset classes, outside the traditional economic arena, to cope with an increasingly fractured and unstable world, economically, politically, socially and spiritually.
So let your moon dreams of eternal financial bliss wash over you. Maybe it will all come true but maybe that too, this crypto charade, will simply come crashing down. The question is when?
DISCLAIMER: This is post entertainment/educational and not financial advice.
Current market cap: ~6m
Circulating supply: 1.49t
Fundamentals:
WHAT IS PLEBBIT?
According to the whitepaper, created in late 2021, Plebbit is a social media protocol that uses no HTTPS endpoints/DNS, no SSL certs and instead uses "public key-based addressing", crypto domains and IPFS/pubsub protocols to create a fully P2P social media design. In other words, it uses similar technology to BitTorrent but for social media.
To run a sub, the sub owner needs to leave their computer on 24/7. Plebbit consists of a downloadable clients (a full node which contribute to client speed through seeding) and the web browser client, which involves leeching off full clients.
The anti-spam measures involve captchas which currently include a standard captchas and karma. According to the dev road map, the challenge will be entirely arbitrary and customizable by the sub-owner (regular captcha, quiz, balance of x token, reputation/karma points etc).
The protocol itself is text-only. Images/video/media are only embedded through links through external websites like Youtube/Odyssey/Imgur etc (not uploaded to the protocol).
Plebbit is currently being used to develop a Reddit, 4chan, Old Reddit (Seedit) and Barebones client. Other front-end style will likely be created by community members in the future like Vbulletin or Discourse etc.
WHY PLEBBIT?
Social media like reddit have become increasingly censorious.
Plebbit solves this by giving full autonomy to the sub/board creator who is the admin of only their sub/board. So long as a board/sub creator runs their full node, then their board/sub is accessible without the hassle of static, public HTTPS endpoints which consumer ISPs rarely provide, nor domain name or SSL cert, which simplifies creating and maintaining a public social forum or community, as the alternative is being a system admin for your own forum website (complicated) or using platforms like reddit (may be censorious).
Plebbit creates an open-source protocol adaptable to any front end style the developer/board creator wants.
Plebbit purports to be serverless and scalable.
Plebbit gives a use case to NFTs (through account profile pictures).
Each individual sub becomes a tradeable NFT that can gain value in proportion to its community value.
Plebbit gives a use case to ENS (and other crypto DNs) as the Plebbit board/sub link can be an ENS. Similarly, usernames can be crypto domains.
Finally, as it is open source, in the future the protocol could be adapted for ads at the sub/board owners discretion meaning each sub/board owner could own 100% of the ad revenue from their specific board or they could choose an ad free browsing experience (as it currently is now).
Plebbit allows for a level of customizability rarely seen (if ever) in social medias (customizable front end, captchas, administration, ads/no ads).
Plebbit is potentially the next paradigm shift in crypto. First, there was BTC (decentralized money/gold). Then, there was ETH (smart contracts). Then there was Chainlink (real world data into SCs). This gave rise to DeFi, NFTs, GameFi etc.
Now there is Plebbit – the first purely P2P social media experience with an adaptable front end, that gives you sovereignty/ownership over your public community. Just as BTC gives you ownership of your money, Plebbit gives you ownership of your public community.
COMPETITORS?
How is this different to Lemmy/federated medias?
According to the developer’s telegram and reddit account, Lemmy/federated social medias are not purely P2P as the admins can arbitrarily store some of your data and delete your acc whereas Plebbit has no global admins to do this. Federated social medias may enable instances to block others from using other instances.
Federated social medias are also complicated, requiring a board/sub owner acquiring a static, public HTTP endpoint, which consumer ISPs rarely provide, a domain name and an SSL cert, which are all vulnerable to censorship and more complicated to set up compared to using the plebbit client which connects to IPFS/pubsub automatically.
DOES PLEBBIT WORK?
The downloadable desktop client (full node) is fast as posting is fully P2P.
However, the web browser client is not a full node (leeches). Resultingly, it is slow, unreliable and captchas do not return instantly.
It will be interesting if developers can implement P2P web browsing or a downloadable android client (full node).
.ETH domains and .SOL domains for usernames and board names work. NFT for username avatars work.
DISADVANTAGES OF PLEBBIT:
The web browser client has poor uptime and captchas may return inconsistently. The downloadable desktop client is much faster. However, mass adoption of a downloadable client is much less likely as many people can’t be bothered downloading computer apps. Therefore, adoption of Plebbit likely depends on whether the devs can optimize the web browser client to be as fast as standard web sites and forums like reddit, vbulletin and discourse.
The token isn’t actually needed for posting as posting is free, which may lower demand for the token (this is arguably also benefit as it will lower the barrier to entry for protocol use).
Token tipping and a DAO for feed curation have not been implemented yet. Note, a tentative toke tipping design was posted on plebbit's github.
The token uses a proxy contract which could rug at the dev's discretion or due to hacks. The dev says this was necessary to implement prior changes such as the airdrop, ending the liquidity mining and enabling the chain swap from avax to eth, and may prove useful in the future. The dev asserted that they are not chain loyal and will switch to whatever chain is most secure and used in the next few years, and expand beyond other ENS, which may need a proxy contract. While a proxy contract is concerning, it seems unlikely that the dev will rug as the dev has already self-funded for 2 years and the github is very active with a technically proven, albeit buggy product.
Scalability claims haven’t been proven as there aren’t enough users.
To run a sub, the sub owner needs to leave their computer on 24/7. If it is not being run, then you cannot comment, however you can still browse, non-updating content. Additionally, according to the devs, if you change your sub from your public address to a ENS, you lose all your prior posts published to your public address (necessitating better backups/archive service/or protocol improvements). Thus, third parties/VCs have the opportunity to create archiving services to archive downed subs for a fee. Finally, in the future, there will probably be services like private RPCs, run by different companies unrelated to Plebbit, that hosts peoples subs for a fee.
TOKENOMICS:
The supply was distributed through airdrops in 2021 on avax (before it migrated to Eth) which were advertised on 4chan and reddit. Later there was liquidity mining (which ended).
The token will be used for tipping and voting to curate the feed through a DAO. However, currently tipping and the DAO haven’t been implemented into the protocol.
FUNDING:
The project is primarily funded by the lead dev, who has already paid 300k in total to the other 3 devs over the past 2+ years of development, according to their github which tracks payments.
Plebbit received small grants from Protocol Labs and Gitcoin.
Technicals:
Earlier this year Plebbit rocketed from (3m mcap to ~16m mcap). After price discovery, a correction occurred after a large bearish divergence on the 1D chart. A descending wedge over April, then ensued.
The day after the local low of ~5.3m mcap, Plebbit experienced a bullish engulfing candle which overcame the previous past 4 days of bearish candles. Additionally, there is now a hidden bullish divergence on the 1D chart. This was followed by a subsequent bearish engulfing on the 4h. Given the significant correction (~67%), this could suggest a bottom is possibly in place, however there is still uncertainty. The close of the monthly should help determine this.
ENTRY:
Given the low holder count (~700), low liquidity, low volume, low market cap and proven, albeit buggy product, I doubt this retests anything under $~5m mcap for long. This is especially true as it has been in accumulation since 2022 (on Avax) and into 2023 on Eth. At the current 6m mcap, Plebbit is well over 50% from ATH which may be a fair buy if you hold long term (1-2 years).
TARGETS: (Assuming 6m mcap)
Conservative prediction 1: If the product doesn’t improve and adoption doesn’t occur = Sept (2024) 12m market cap (x3)
Conservative prediction 2: If product doesn’t improve and adoption doesn’t occur = Dec 2024 30-50m market cap (x5-8)
Liberal prediction 1: If product improves, there are 300+ users + tech media coverage = Dec 2025 100m market cap (x15)
Liberal prediction 2: If product improves, adoption to 1000+ daily users occurs = Dec 2025 300-500m market cap (x50-83)
Liberal prediction 3: If product improves and adoption to 5000 daily daily users occurs + third parties like institutional funds/VCs, create plebbit infrastructure like archive websites, board hosting services, board backup services for a fee = Dec 2026 1bil market cap (x167)
Liberal prediction 4: If product improves and adoption to 10000 daily users occurs + aforementioned institutional fund’s/VC infrastructure = Dec 2027 10bil market cap (x1667)
Benner cycle:
The meme tier “Agriculture Benner cycle” is also worth considering. This stipulates a crash in ~2026. Note, that the Benner cycle is sometimes 1 year premature (the crash may occur end of 2026).
Macro verbal drivel:
The 1-2 years proceeding the halving will likely drag all alts up based on historical price action. If global crypto market cap reaches gold Gold’s 13.1t mcap, with a ~40% BTC dominance, this would create a ~250k BTC by 2026 cycle peak, per the Benner cycle, before entering into a 3y crypto correction, trapping moontards hoping for a mystical 1mm BTC and infinite gains for their shitcoin. A more conservative prediction is ~$100-140k BTC.
Crypto is an emerging asset class and in times of global uncertainty technology performs badly, without the infinite M2 hack. A bearish BTC is further exacerbated by global uncertainty regarding ongoing and potentially exacerbating military and trade wars between the West and East. Finally, the proposed Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act 2023, introduces the legally illusory, constrictions on unhosted wallet providers which strengthens know-your-customer (KYC) for entities like wallet providers and miners. As legislative pressure mounts, crypto bearishness may increase over fears that such legislation is impractical, burdensome and a threat to the cornerstones of the crypto ethos.
However, any bearishness will likely rectify, as market regulations clarify to the tune of retail crypto users parroting their favorite crypto narratives to the sea of curiously amused institutional entities and regulators, who frolic through the revolving door: "freedom", “digital gold”, “be your own bank”, “lessen your vulnerability to bank bail-ins”, only for “institutional adoption” and the myriad of VC funded narratives to be fanatically chanted soon after (“NFTs, NFTs, MemeCoin, MemeCoin, GameFi, oh and DeFi”), the feverish pitch overpowering investor trepidation, as retail and now even institutional investors seek fresh memes, dreams and alternative emerging asset classes, outside the traditional economic arena, to cope with an increasingly fractured and unstable world, economically, politically, socially and spiritually.
So let your moon dreams of eternal financial bliss wash over you. Maybe it will all come true but maybe that too, this crypto charade, will simply come crashing down. The question is when?
DISCLAIMER: This is post entertainment/educational and not financial advice.
Comment
The heading of this article says ~6.7m mcap. However, I meant to write ~6m mcap as that was the market cap at the time of posting and the value my calculations/analysis was based off of.Trade active
1D bullish divergence is appearing on plebbit having corrected from ~17m to ~5m. Recent sells (<7 days) have all been low volume sells, selling into a previous whale market buy.
Weak hands are falling and large whales seem to have finished selling according to Uniswap market history (the largest non MEV bot sell seems to be weeks ago).
Protocol updates are coming (tipping, DAO, speed optimizations).
The future looks bright.
Trade active
We are close to hitting the $2-2.5M MCAP support. Anything under $<3M MCAP is an attractive entry.
This is because a 80-90% correction for a project with a novel design that satisfies demand for a social problem (decentralized forum empowering the masses by addressing technocratic authoritarianism), is a good opportunity.
Trade active
Technical analysis:Plebbit now has a more developed MACD bull div and a a bounce off lower support.
Fundamentals:
Plebbit developers have released a refactor & rewrite of the Plebchan client.
The Seedit client has also had updates. Both clients (downloadable & web client) are now faster.
Next on the developer roadmap is P2P web browsing, tipping, DAO voting to curate the default feed and optional subplebbit/board monetization.
It is expected that these factors will greatly increase adoption as running a subplebbit/board will be potentially very profitable, especially if one's sub gains thousands of users and is tradeable as an NFT (with all subscribers connected to a specific .ETH/.SOL domain).
Macro:
Macro crypto is also turning bullish as ETF BTC intake tempers the bearishness associated with the German government dumping hundreds of millions in BTC & the looming sale pressure of Mt Gox sales.
An electoral year may also mean a rate pivot, positively impacting the crypto market.
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