POL PROBABLY IN WAVE 'C' OR 'A'

This is an update on our POL wave count shared earlier, we have modified the wave count looking at the formations.

If the wave count is correct then we are in an ending diagonal which is either complete or in the last leg of completion, we will buy once price breaks above 575.

Alternate count is that of 5th wave will get extended downwards, however that probability is low that is why we have removed our short sell trading setup.

Although possibility of the downside is still there, the formation of double top chart pattern and our weekly crude oil wave count does support downside long term.
There's a correlation between international crude oil prices and Oil & Gas exploration sectors, however currently the markets have not been correlating much but on the long run prices will tend to correlate.

Let see how this plays, Good Luck !

Disclaimer: The information presented in this wave analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. It does not constitute financial or trading advice, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.

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Current count is providing more confidence therefore a little adjustment on the entry point

Will enter long at: 572.10

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Good morning everyone

If the wave count is correct then most probably 5th wave of the ending diagonal is over and prices should start to rise. however the prices can go back and forth near the support line before starting to rise again.

We are confident with our count at the moment and the only thing that will weak our confidence in it is a couple of big red bars downside with high volume breaking the below blue support line

Entry position has been revised, will enter long at: 562

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We might have one more swing down before upside rise, Also if the prices go below 533.89 it will weaken our wave count as per wave guidelines.

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Prices have started to rise and most probably will activate our buy trade tomorrow at 562.10 in POL.

I'm sharing an update at this time because MARI will also reach our buy zone tomorrow. since we are trading MARI aggressively (trading all internal waves) therefore might not get time to update POL trade setup timely.

Trade Setup:

Entry Price: 562.10

Stop Loss: 545

Targets:
T1 : 590 - 599 range
T2 : 615 - 625 range

Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.5

Note: Actual calculated target is 622 but this will be an ABC move therefore will cut off 50% profit at T1 and will buy back again for T2 on retracement.

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Order had been placed for buy at 562.10, let see if our trade gets active today

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Update:

Our trade did not get active today, prices went back and forth but didn't broke upwards. Prices might make a new swing low before it starts rising.

Keep a close eye on the below pink & yellow trendline because prices might touch or break them but should close within it. We are bullish on POL and the only alternate here is if the price breaks down making a big red candlestick or gaps down with huge volume.

Entry position remains the same for tomorrow opening: 562.10

Trade active

Trade active

Entry Price: 562.10

Stop Loss: 545

Targets:
T1 : 590 - 599 range
T2 : 615 - 625 range

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Update:

Since our MARI trade has reached our target, now we can add more position in this trade setup.

We are early in this trade and prices need to rise to give confidence to our count therefore we will add more positions once price goes beyond 574.89. Will buy more positions at 575

Alternate if the prices go down below 545, we will only close 50% our positions in hand and hold the other 50% because POL has very good fundamentals and current price is not that bad.

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Update:

Prices have not broken the upper pink trendline today and has closed within the channel, now if the price does not break above the trendline tomorrow or next Monday then most probably the one last swing down that we were anticipating earlier will unfold taking out our stop loss at 545 making a new low but it still won't invalidate our overall wave count.

If our stop is taken out tomorrow we will cut 50% of our positions and will see if the prices hold near the below trendline. If prices holds near the trendline and start rising again giving us confidence then we will add these 50% positions back that we take loss on back in the trade at entry price of 563.10.

Remember in trading not all trades are winning trades, we remain bullish on this trade until prices go below 524 level.

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Good morning everyone,

Make sure to place your orders early in the day, most probably our stop will be taken out today. we will be lucky if that doesn't happen :)

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Update:

Although price is trying his best to move but there's no volume to back it up, neither bulls or bears are ready to pull the trigger.

Remember without volume any direction the price take will not determine its trend, for example just take a look at MARI volume and see POL volume you will get an idea.

Prices need to break above or below with heavy volume.

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Good morning everyone, hope you had a great weekend :)

Last session prices ended up again near the upper pink trendline, if the prices break above it will most probably come back to retest the pink trendline making it a support, on the other hand if prices starts to fall it will go back towards the lower pink and yellow trendline taking out our stop loss.

So far we've been lucky that our stop loss was not taken out last Friday.

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Update:

Prices broke above the pink trendline yesterday however the volume was low. If our wave count is correct and prices starts to rise, we will add more positions at 575 as mentioned earlier.

Keep an eye on the volume

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Update:

Volume has started to rise a little compared to previous days but is still low

KayJay

Disclaimer

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KayJay