POWR Ascending Broadening Wedge Giving Us A Few Trading Options!
Ok today we will have a look at POWR vs BTC on the daily log chart!
As you can see on the 10th of April we finally broke out of the downtrend channel we have been in since early January. Since then we have trending higher in an ascending broadening wedge pattern. It’s worth noting that ascending broadening wedges tend to breakout in the direction of the previous price trend; acting as continuations of this move – so in this instance it would result in a move lower. Generally if a downside break occurs, these patterns are very trustworthy, however they are less reliable prior to the break of the lower trend-line. It is also important to note that ascending broadening wedges can extend for long periods of time, and there is no easy way to predict when or how the pattern will end.
Now in saying this I am not necessarily convinced we will actually break to the downside of this (pattern despite a commonly accepted notion of a 76% chance that the formation will break out downward). This is because the MACD is trending above the signal line and we have a bit of momentum building to the upside. Aroon Up is trending high above 50, whilst Aroon Down is well below 50 – indicating bulls have the edge. We have also tested the 12 EMA as support after the bullish cross over of the 26 EMA occurred on the 13th of April. The RSI is not overbought at the moment, and is starting to trend downwards providing us with further room for growth.
In addition we have a three outside up candlestick pattern emerging (not yet fully formed) on the half hour chart, and a bullish engulfing pattern emerging (again not yet fully formed) on the one hour chart. Both bullish signals indicating a move further up the pattern. So in summary, technical indicators are giving us a strong buy signal on the daily.
So how do we trade this pattern? Well we have a few options. First there is the bearish breakout strategy. This is the most basic and involves waiting for a breakout confirmation such as a breakthrough of the lower support line. This means sell once the lower support area is breached. But this is the least effective of all the strategies. Probably because it’s the one everyone is using.
Secondly we have the bullish continuation strategy. This means we go long as the price breaks above the upper resistance line of the wedge. This generally has the best odds of success as there is about a 55% probability of a further bullish advancement after a break of the upper resistance line. If this occurs the bullish move generally lasts at least as long as the duration of the pattern itself.
Lastly we have a swing trade strategy. As the ascending broadening wedge tends to extend indefinitely, it can also be traded as a price channel. In this case, you can use a swing strategy to trade off the highs and lows between the support and resistance area. Simply place a sell order when the price rebounds down from the upper resistance line and place a buy order when the price rebounds up from the lower support line. If you take this approach you do however need to pay special attention to breaks of the support/resistance areas.
Remember to always DYOR and trade safely!
Cheers
As you can see on the 10th of April we finally broke out of the downtrend channel we have been in since early January. Since then we have trending higher in an ascending broadening wedge pattern. It’s worth noting that ascending broadening wedges tend to breakout in the direction of the previous price trend; acting as continuations of this move – so in this instance it would result in a move lower. Generally if a downside break occurs, these patterns are very trustworthy, however they are less reliable prior to the break of the lower trend-line. It is also important to note that ascending broadening wedges can extend for long periods of time, and there is no easy way to predict when or how the pattern will end.
Now in saying this I am not necessarily convinced we will actually break to the downside of this (pattern despite a commonly accepted notion of a 76% chance that the formation will break out downward). This is because the MACD is trending above the signal line and we have a bit of momentum building to the upside. Aroon Up is trending high above 50, whilst Aroon Down is well below 50 – indicating bulls have the edge. We have also tested the 12 EMA as support after the bullish cross over of the 26 EMA occurred on the 13th of April. The RSI is not overbought at the moment, and is starting to trend downwards providing us with further room for growth.
In addition we have a three outside up candlestick pattern emerging (not yet fully formed) on the half hour chart, and a bullish engulfing pattern emerging (again not yet fully formed) on the one hour chart. Both bullish signals indicating a move further up the pattern. So in summary, technical indicators are giving us a strong buy signal on the daily.
So how do we trade this pattern? Well we have a few options. First there is the bearish breakout strategy. This is the most basic and involves waiting for a breakout confirmation such as a breakthrough of the lower support line. This means sell once the lower support area is breached. But this is the least effective of all the strategies. Probably because it’s the one everyone is using.
Secondly we have the bullish continuation strategy. This means we go long as the price breaks above the upper resistance line of the wedge. This generally has the best odds of success as there is about a 55% probability of a further bullish advancement after a break of the upper resistance line. If this occurs the bullish move generally lasts at least as long as the duration of the pattern itself.
Lastly we have a swing trade strategy. As the ascending broadening wedge tends to extend indefinitely, it can also be traded as a price channel. In this case, you can use a swing strategy to trade off the highs and lows between the support and resistance area. Simply place a sell order when the price rebounds down from the upper resistance line and place a buy order when the price rebounds up from the lower support line. If you take this approach you do however need to pay special attention to breaks of the support/resistance areas.
Remember to always DYOR and trade safely!
Cheers
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