PSA - value play or value trap?
Over the past 4 months PSA has shed nearly 25% from its peak around $266. Moreover, during the same time period, the XLRE (Real Esate ETF of which PSA is a part of) gave back just 7% +/-. So, will the under performance continue? Or, will PSA rebound from current levels and offer a chance at some upside while delivering around a 4% dividend? If indeed the over-bought S&P rally is overdue for a pullback and if we see some mean reversion in terms of return this year, then a good dividend paying stock currently undervalued is worth some risk. We have the start of what looks like a possible turning point in PSA but will need to employ patience. First, as is typical at the edges of moves, we are seeing an increase in volume. A good example of this in PSA was the basing around $200 in late 2018/early 2019 whereby a few repeated volume spikes signified a turn was coming. The combination of new longs entering the market, new shorts entering the market, weak longs dumping losses, and old shorts covering positions has always caused volume (and volatility) around the turning points and this is seen best, in my opinion, in volume expansion. Repeated volume expansion around the edges typifies many shares exchanging hands and an eventual change in direction. In the case of PSA, it looks as if this could be starting to take shape but again will take some time to play out. In addition to the volume uptick we also have a potential false break lower, another good indicator of a potential turning point (not only does it indicate a lack of follow through but increased buying). Might be a bit early to make a call on this one but the potential is there for a decent swing trade with a chance at more. More importantly, if this does materialize it will offer a low-risk setup as the false break provides decent stop placement - potential targets would be the high volume breakdown from the $240 level and the initial breakdown off the top around $260. I wouldn't rule out a wider consolidation pattern similar to what we saw at the end of 2018. While that wouldn't be bad (as we could target longs off of a retest of the false break low around $203), ideally we would see a sharp move up on volume accompanied by a low volume pull back. Whichever way it breaks only time will tell, will revert back as more is revealed.
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