🔻 Market Context
The Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) took a severe hit after Trump’s proposed tariffs rattled the broader market. Investors fled risk-on assets, dragging tech-heavy indexes into a sharp sell-off. This capitulation-type flush aligns with the "risk-off" tone the options market has hinted at for days.
Technical Analysis (1H + SMC) QQQ broke structure decisively (BOS) and formed a bearish flag within a descending channel. Current price is hovering near the $420 support—this level acted as a major BOS zone, and we’re now testing it again from above.
The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) show multiple CHOCHs failing to reclaim higher liquidity zones around $475–$480, marking this area as a strong distribution zone. MACD and Stoch RSI are near oversold levels, showing momentum exhaustion, but no clear bullish divergence yet.
A small consolidation box is forming just above the demand zone. If this zone holds, a short-term relief bounce to retest $440–$448 could be in play. However, a breakdown below $419 would trigger further downside into the $405–$400 region.
GEX-Based Options Sentiment (1H)
* Highest Negative NET GEX / PUT Support is currently at $420, aligning perfectly with our price action floor.
* GEX10 at $434 and GEX9 at $440–443 form resistance blocks for any short-term bounce.
* The HVL at $475 (04/07 expiration) remains a major gamma magnet only if bulls reclaim $450+ levels.
From a flow standpoint:
* IVR: 101.8 – Options are relatively expensive.
* IVx Avg: 56.7% – Increasing volatility confirms fear.
* PUT$: 23.5% dominance – Bearish pressure is heavy.
* GEX is deep in the bearish zone, with multiple red markers suggesting downside continuation risk is still high.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Scenario
* Price holds $420 and forms a higher low.
* Breakout above $440 opens door to $457 → $475 zone.
* Risk-on confirmation if we reclaim $457 with strong volume.
Bearish Scenario
* Breakdown below $420 = major flush trigger.
* Price could cascade to $405–$400 near previous fair value gaps.
* Put support levels are likely to absorb some of the sell-off, but sentiment is fragile.
Final Thoughts This is a high-volatility week. Institutions are hedging heavily. Don’t fight the trend—watch for clear reclaim above $440 to go long. Otherwise, trade level to level and protect your capital.
QQQ is not yet safe for investment—wait for reclaim above $457 and improving options sentiment before considering entries. For traders, short-term scalps off $420 with tight risk management are in play, but be prepared for violent swings.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Technical Analysis (1H + SMC) QQQ broke structure decisively (BOS) and formed a bearish flag within a descending channel. Current price is hovering near the $420 support—this level acted as a major BOS zone, and we’re now testing it again from above.
The Smart Money Concepts (SMC) show multiple CHOCHs failing to reclaim higher liquidity zones around $475–$480, marking this area as a strong distribution zone. MACD and Stoch RSI are near oversold levels, showing momentum exhaustion, but no clear bullish divergence yet.
A small consolidation box is forming just above the demand zone. If this zone holds, a short-term relief bounce to retest $440–$448 could be in play. However, a breakdown below $419 would trigger further downside into the $405–$400 region.
GEX-Based Options Sentiment (1H)
* Highest Negative NET GEX / PUT Support is currently at $420, aligning perfectly with our price action floor.
* GEX10 at $434 and GEX9 at $440–443 form resistance blocks for any short-term bounce.
* The HVL at $475 (04/07 expiration) remains a major gamma magnet only if bulls reclaim $450+ levels.
From a flow standpoint:
* IVR: 101.8 – Options are relatively expensive.
* IVx Avg: 56.7% – Increasing volatility confirms fear.
* PUT$: 23.5% dominance – Bearish pressure is heavy.
* GEX is deep in the bearish zone, with multiple red markers suggesting downside continuation risk is still high.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Scenario
* Price holds $420 and forms a higher low.
* Breakout above $440 opens door to $457 → $475 zone.
* Risk-on confirmation if we reclaim $457 with strong volume.
Bearish Scenario
* Breakdown below $420 = major flush trigger.
* Price could cascade to $405–$400 near previous fair value gaps.
* Put support levels are likely to absorb some of the sell-off, but sentiment is fragile.
Final Thoughts This is a high-volatility week. Institutions are hedging heavily. Don’t fight the trend—watch for clear reclaim above $440 to go long. Otherwise, trade level to level and protect your capital.
QQQ is not yet safe for investment—wait for reclaim above $457 and improving options sentiment before considering entries. For traders, short-term scalps off $420 with tight risk management are in play, but be prepared for violent swings.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.