QQQ as of 06/12/2021 @ 0600 EST
Updated
Based largely on price and chart pattern within the context of falling unemployment, rising inflation, and perceptions of rising inflation on FED policy, I believe the price will channel through this pattern. By mid-July, QQQ price will reach a high of around $350, after falling back to the channel and bottom resistance point. I've outlined the rise timing by the number of days between peaks and the same for valleys. I can only predict up to the Jackson Hole Symposium because it is difficult to say if the FED will announce tapering of QE and how the market will react. Inflation numbers this summer will shed further light as well as the rise in travel due to vaccinations.
If prices rise above the higher end of the channel (solid line), I suspect that outsized and irrational buying is occurring. Perhaps the US government may pass a very large stimulus bill, which is unlikely given the partisan nature of the government at this time, but if it did occur, this stimulus would likely result in greater savings and purchases.
If prices fall below the lower end of the channel, and below certain resistances, that would likely be the result of the some risks including issues around vaccinations, new strains of COVID, and government policy regarding lockdowns. However, unless catastrophic events occur, I suspect that prices will remain within this channel. And see a rise in the long term.
I'm waiting until the next dip to purchase. I likely won't sell at the peaks.
If prices rise above the higher end of the channel (solid line), I suspect that outsized and irrational buying is occurring. Perhaps the US government may pass a very large stimulus bill, which is unlikely given the partisan nature of the government at this time, but if it did occur, this stimulus would likely result in greater savings and purchases.
If prices fall below the lower end of the channel, and below certain resistances, that would likely be the result of the some risks including issues around vaccinations, new strains of COVID, and government policy regarding lockdowns. However, unless catastrophic events occur, I suspect that prices will remain within this channel. And see a rise in the long term.
I'm waiting until the next dip to purchase. I likely won't sell at the peaks.
Trade active
Here's relevant info for the state of the market at this timecnbc.com/2021/06/13/us-stock-futures-are-flat-with-the-sp-500-at-a-record-high.html
"“The broad market’s modest performance is pretty much in line with historical patterns— specifically, June’s tendency for generally quiet trading,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading at E-Trade Financial. “As the market continues to sort through potential moves made by the Fed and looming inflation, we could continue to see this narrative play out in the short-term.”
The Fed’s two-day policy meeting will likely dominate investor behavior this week. Although the central bank is not expected to take any action, its forecasts for interest rates, inflation and the economy could move the markets. The Fed could possibly move up its forecast for a rate hike after saying in its last quarterly update that it would keep its benchmark rate near zero through 2023, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the press after the central bank issues its statement Wednesday and traders will be parsing his comments for any clues as to when the Fed could start to end its aggressive monthly asset purchases, especially given recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings."
Here's what Paul Tudor had to say:
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said this week’s Fed meeting could be the most important in Powell’s career, and he warned that the chairman could spark a big sell-off in risk assets if he doesn’t do a good job of signaling a taper.
“If they course correct, if they say, ‘We’ve got incoming data, we’ve accomplished our mission or we’re on the way very rapidly to accomplishing our mission on employment,’ then you’re going to get a taper tantrum,” Tudor Jones said. “You’re going to get a sell-off in fixed income. You’re going to get a correction in stocks.”
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