Zig-Zag Path to ATH?
Updated
Just an idea. Every correction has been a zig-zag since 2015.
Last year the zag came in late October. Cycle this year seems to lag a week behind. Time bars suggest this rally maybe near end move.
Not saying that gap at 360 will fill, just that it might fill, it's a price magnet TBS. Price could consolidate and pivot again anywhere between.
Some kind of pullback is likely in next week to ten days IMO. Gone overbought, had some rough news, gapped down and closed that gap;
Expect further selling soon IMO.
Been wrong once before, this is definitely not advice, DDD, GLTA!
Last year the zag came in late October. Cycle this year seems to lag a week behind. Time bars suggest this rally maybe near end move.
Not saying that gap at 360 will fill, just that it might fill, it's a price magnet TBS. Price could consolidate and pivot again anywhere between.
Some kind of pullback is likely in next week to ten days IMO. Gone overbought, had some rough news, gapped down and closed that gap;
Expect further selling soon IMO.
Been wrong once before, this is definitely not advice, DDD, GLTA!
Note
Looking hard at time bars, each correction phase has been ~9-13 bars, so 11 bar projection for this move, if it plays out, is in the middle.Each uptrend after these corrections has moved up for 15 bars! That's the time allotted for bull moves, apparently.
IF this plays as projected, will bull into Jan and break again in Feb... Feb/Mar has been correction season for last three years.
Note
Perfect gapfill on 10/29... made a bit off calls, now loading up on bear spreads in Nov 384P short weekly 378s, 40 spreadsNote
Rolled out of my short leg banking gains, moved out next exp and down $2 to 376 strikes, added ten spreads now in 50Trade active
O FGS look at it go now, nothing to do but add ten more, got 60 spreads. Making bank off the short legs at least!
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LOL vertical spikes always the shorts throwing towels in ring... buying the 385Ps now, ten spreads.Rolled out of the short legs again for more bank.
Gonna carry these for a while and see where it goes...
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Added ten 385 put spreads, Novembers, short Monday 380sTrade active
Got bullish again FGS, rolled out and up of the short legs for lovely credits, added 20 more spreads, now in 100 bear spreads, that's just about enough IMO.Shorted 100 11/01 382Ps, for .53c credit, it's 10% hedge on position.
Trade active
Moving fast rolled the short legs down and out for .20c credit. I see an intraday H&S crown in the hourly.Note
Closed it all out on the little drawdown risk-off. Re-enter next week if it seems viable. GLTANote
Yeah good to close that BS look how it bulled FFS, EOD short-covering Friday PM. nuts!Trade active
Shorted the Rip EOD:QQQ Diagonal
+20 Nov-03-21/Nov21 380/386 Put Diagonal
-20 Nov-03-21 $380 Puts
+20 Nov21 $386 Puts
Note
The breakaway gap from 360 probably won't fill until this uptrend is exhausted.A pullback to the .38 fibo or 1/3 speedline, is most likely IMO
Trade closed: target reached
Closed shorts Mon AM on weakness. Fooled around in the chop, made a dime off calls and closed those just before it popped, always like that. Don't feel badly if this happens, we all get those trades some days...Bigger move coming soon IMO, just can't gt traction in whipsaw, be patient!
Trade active
Smell of weakness drew me back in and clipped 1k on 100 daily puts, beware of bounce...Note
Yeah this was dicey i bought 100 dailies for .50c and flipped them for .65 wow sweating bullets...Note
So much fun rolled into calls and flipped 40 daily 386 QQQ for another dime lolNote
It's just whipsaw and every trade is a gamble. I don't recommend this! Patience... trading near-expiration contracts carries high pucker factor, never bet more than you care to lose... cause you probably will!
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Flipped a few more both sides but tbvh daily chart looks like it might firm up and could lift EOD, hard to kill the bull, sitting out on cash atmTrade active
Amazing, again... shorting the rally EOD:QQQ Diagonal
+10 Nov-03-21/Nov21 383/386 Put Diagonal
-10 Nov-03-21 $383 Puts
+10 Nov21 $386 Puts
Note
Added two spreads. Getting 90c for the short legs, pretty hefty premium IMONote
Opened mirror trade in Nov 387P, three spreads for a $1330 cr in short legs with 2 days to go.Note
Adding two more 387s. Look how they ran it up, back down, back up... perfect whipsaw day fgsTrade active
Added more EOD now in 15 spreads each position. Total credit for the short legs .78c x 30 > $2320 after fees.LOL, AH the 387s moved back ITM, position greening up.
Got to watch these spreads close, you can lose fast on short legs if the price gaps. Always roll for a credit!
I won't hold options overnight outside of spreads, always like to hedge my bets. Intraday I will trade dailies straight up, this is always a gamble. I usually do the daily trades in lots of 50 or 100. Gets real puckerish when you carry 400 contracts... every penny moves your position 400 bucks...
Turns out we coulda bought both dips on 11/01 FTW. Ah, well.
Note
Last TOTD: Rolled the short leg 383s to 381s, same date 11/03, for a .29c debit. Made 20c on the 383s, if QQQ were to gap down these would spike, better to move the spread out and roll up again in AM trade if price moves higher.You have to be so crafty in writing these spreads!
I have lost money on the short legs, they can move pretty fast, and wipe out all the gains from long side if you sell strikes too close together.
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