Rather than get straight into the chart, I think it's important to get a few points across. If tariffs aren't an already over-run headline & probably a small cause of 'uncertainty' for the market, I use to think the same. Seems too coincidental to me that the anchor candle we had this past week was the same we saw back in January, & it came @ the same time that Trump imposes tariffs (not even 'more' tariffs) that legitimately tax every incoming item/good we get from China. It's not only $F, 
AAPL, or manufacturing jobs in the economy that get hit, it could be much more. When you consider the growth Silicon Valley has seen over past few years along w/ the tech gains we've all seen, Cali is the 5th largest economy in the world, & the 1st major contributor to US GDP. That being said, China is an industrialized country, while U.S is the main consumer. So when we consider the impact of tech as a whole - we should also consider that necessities for robotics, computers, computer chips, telephones, integrated circuits, broadcasting equipment, photographic equipment, & everything in-between is not only China's biggest export market, but also the U.S largest source/flow of funds (atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/hs92/8471/). Not only does that affect tech startups in Cali, but also the holders of bond issuance from tech startups, capital investment from venture market as a whole. I think that's only the beginning though. Without giving a guesstimate of consumer costs (CPI), try to picture (yourself) just how much of "Made in China" products you see or own. So with tariffs, costs can only go up. If costs (inflation) increases, the only way to fight it is with higher rates (higher rates = higher unemployment, lower inflation). Not only do we have lowest unemployment #'s since 19__, but we also have the lowest labor force participation rate; so we'll have to find out which direction Trump points the economy in (tech, nonetheless). Getting too far into this tangent but yeah, rising wedge, I think it's pretty fucking bearish but my uncertainty is through the roof with this market.
AAPL, or manufacturing jobs in the economy that get hit, it could be much more. When you consider the growth Silicon Valley has seen over past few years along w/ the tech gains we've all seen, Cali is the 5th largest economy in the world, & the 1st major contributor to US GDP. That being said, China is an industrialized country, while U.S is the main consumer. So when we consider the impact of tech as a whole - we should also consider that necessities for robotics, computers, computer chips, telephones, integrated circuits, broadcasting equipment, photographic equipment, & everything in-between is not only China's biggest export market, but also the U.S largest source/flow of funds (atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/hs92/8471/). Not only does that affect tech startups in Cali, but also the holders of bond issuance from tech startups, capital investment from venture market as a whole. I think that's only the beginning though. Without giving a guesstimate of consumer costs (CPI), try to picture (yourself) just how much of "Made in China" products you see or own. So with tariffs, costs can only go up. If costs (inflation) increases, the only way to fight it is with higher rates (higher rates = higher unemployment, lower inflation). Not only do we have lowest unemployment #'s since 19__, but we also have the lowest labor force participation rate; so we'll have to find out which direction Trump points the economy in (tech, nonetheless). Getting too far into this tangent but yeah, rising wedge, I think it's pretty fucking bearish but my uncertainty is through the roof with this market. Note
Todays date is Sept. 17th, the black candle we had today? Pretty fucking ugly. That's all.Note
Todays date is Sept. 22nd, that black candle we had today - again? Doesn't look great, but without bias - I can see a push higher.Note
Update: Nvm. Could get ugly. LolTrade closed: target reached
I'll make this last comment a serious one. I'm bearish on tech, for now. Not 1 company I'd buy unless it was $FB. & for a few (immense) reasons. 1) You have a social media company w/ 3 fucking times net income of Apple. The user "growth" worries seem too oblivious to not take into account Zuckerberg has literally turned the company into the definition of "profitability". 2) A $1T capitalized company like AAPL is historic. A company with an 80% gross profit margin, a current ratio above 10 (thanks to minuscule debt), EBITDA > 50%, revenue growth YoY growing more than 
AMZN (42% vs 39%), all while earning 200+ times interest expense? That's more than historic. I encourage anyone w/ a good comparison to give their perspective. 3) I won't get into why, but to me - the market looks something like it did in 2013-2015 w/ US default situation as well as 97' Asian FC. 
NFLX is about to take a BEATING, from rate hikes. AAPL obviously is capitalized enough to remain #1, but the trade war is 100% real & should 100% worry their shareholders. Mentioning the wage hikes as a legitimate cause for worry to AMZN is amateur - come 2019 w/ tariff costs, margins may/may not get hit as long as they raise COG. By doing so - all the more reason for every other consumer to find an alternative such as $WMT. Cyber concerns are a big one for 
FB & $GOOGL. Huge, actually. Seeing as 
GOOGL is as financially sophisticated (if not more, at a much higher premium) - I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal or partnership of some sort to assure their profitability. But to end this one off - FB, $330. Remember this one.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.