QQQ bounce off support of channel from 2009
Updated
Here are the major channels that I am watching for QQQ. You can see that last week we had a strong bounce off the blue channel's support. The blue channel was formed off the low in 2008-2009 and the subsequent massive bull rally for the past 12 years. You can also see that QQQ lost the even stronger bull channel that started in 2016.
The question now becomes if the lack of QE from the fed and continued interest rate hikes will cause QQQ to test or even fallen into the green channel formed after the dot com crash and the recovery up to the crash in 2008. You can see that in both 2018 and 2020 that QQQ did exactly that. We could also trend sideways for 2023 and test the blue channel then, which would be lower but not by much.
Personally, I have started to be a bit more bullish and put a little money back in the market. This would be a good place to find support for QQQ. Looking at the 1 Week time scale, it is not clear that there is a lot of upside in the near future. As noted, we could still fall a lot, but you can't live in fear for ever. I don't think the economy is as bad as the media is making it out to be, but this may be a case of don't fight the fed on the way down.
The question now becomes if the lack of QE from the fed and continued interest rate hikes will cause QQQ to test or even fallen into the green channel formed after the dot com crash and the recovery up to the crash in 2008. You can see that in both 2018 and 2020 that QQQ did exactly that. We could also trend sideways for 2023 and test the blue channel then, which would be lower but not by much.
Personally, I have started to be a bit more bullish and put a little money back in the market. This would be a good place to find support for QQQ. Looking at the 1 Week time scale, it is not clear that there is a lot of upside in the near future. As noted, we could still fall a lot, but you can't live in fear for ever. I don't think the economy is as bad as the media is making it out to be, but this may be a case of don't fight the fed on the way down.
Note
Tuesday around 3pm. QQQ has found strong support off of trend line and mid channel.
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