Happy Days are Here Again!
Updated
Irrational Exuberance! Bad news is good, good news is gooder!
The gaps tell all. Measured move from the runaway gap ought to end up around 388 +/- 2 pips.
There must be and certainly will be a pullback from a last exhaustion gap, may gap up sometime 1-3 Nov.
Fed minutes on 3 Nov may be catalyst for pullback. Likely pivots shown, 1/3 speedline most likely, given extreme fearless bullishness.
Can bull anywhere anytime from pullback to any of the levels shown. Not even attempting to guess where this might occur, get ready!
Final ATH TBD, might come in Dec for Santa Rally IMO. Would be a 5th of V EW, a monster. The subsequent break in 2022 will be spectacular...
Not advice, just A TOOLUSE TUTORIAL... REMEMBER THE TREND IS UR FRIEND TILL THE END AT THE BEND! GLTA!!
The gaps tell all. Measured move from the runaway gap ought to end up around 388 +/- 2 pips.
There must be and certainly will be a pullback from a last exhaustion gap, may gap up sometime 1-3 Nov.
Fed minutes on 3 Nov may be catalyst for pullback. Likely pivots shown, 1/3 speedline most likely, given extreme fearless bullishness.
Can bull anywhere anytime from pullback to any of the levels shown. Not even attempting to guess where this might occur, get ready!
Final ATH TBD, might come in Dec for Santa Rally IMO. Would be a 5th of V EW, a monster. The subsequent break in 2022 will be spectacular...
Not advice, just A TOOLUSE TUTORIAL... REMEMBER THE TREND IS UR FRIEND TILL THE END AT THE BEND! GLTA!!
Note
I strongly encourage read & review John Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. It's a freakin' bible IMO.You should review ALL of chapter 4; with especial attention to "Reversal Days" (p. 90), Gann & Fibo Fan lines; Speedline retracements; and the Three Types of Price Gaps including their characteristics:
It is here written; "Breakaway gaps more often than not are not filled; prices may return to the upper end of gap, and may even close a portion of the gap, but some portion of the gap is often left unfilled."
NB: 14 October gapped up 40 pips, slightly pulled back and then went parabolic.
Measured, aka runaway gaps, sometimes go unfilled, but often act as support and remain open, whereas "after breakaway and runaway gaps have been identified, the analyst should expect the exhaustion gap... which will quickly fade and prices turn lower within days... it is a dead giveaway... the exhaustion gap has very bearish implications."
Note
We had runaway gaps on the 15th and 19th October; a smaller gap on the 20th was filled, then price moved higher into consolidation zone, and gain broke above in irrational defiance of negative ERs from big Tech and a crushing report of stagflationary growth at 2%...IMO a final gap up is to be expected. Should appear bewteen 1-3 November. Would not get real big short until you see it IMO.
Price by itself is never a good reason to short, price can always increase illogically and irrationally. Short on signals, those we get from indicators and chart patterns. I never short anymore off Elliotts waves, these are so subjective, they only look clear in hindsight. Right now we got a pretty clear 5-motive impulsive EW playing out, ofc it can extend and probably will.
Bulls like this die hard, it won't rollover in a day, and the first bearish move will probably result in a buyback for a hanging man doji. You will have many opportunities to short IMO... GLTA!
Note
FYI & Reference, a free pdf of Murphy's text online, this is Pure Gold, cost you nothing to read it but a few hours on evenings and weekends, if you read it three times you will see things you never thought possible:cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/unsorted2/Stock books 029/John J Murphy - Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets.pdf
Trade active
Scalping and churning, caution is in order IMONote
Surprising strength in small caps... hmmm, churn? Swapping techs for R2K? No position, a miss.Trade active
Shorting QQQ, see related posts. Astounding how they runup EOD. Shoulda bought more calls, lol! Who knew?!Note
Cannot emphasize strongly enough NOT to PLUNGE if you choose to short this beast. They buy evry tiny dip now, IMO this sentiment will soon change, I would not pay these crazy prices! No price too high... No hill too steep no hole too deep no gas too cheap!
Trade active
Wow here we are at the Fibo, MoMo gone nuts again... adding, short the rips!Trade active
Did real nice in 389 puts, closed on the fade, short if it lifts again... watching in cash atmNote
Faded it again. Looks real toppy. This is dicey work, anyone ever held puts while the damned thing creeps higher for hours knows what agonal pain means IMO;They paid off but so much damned nail-biting, FGS
Note
Trying a few calls... QQQ 388Note
Closed all, watch & wait. Made bank from puts and calls in same day, not shabby IMONote
Yeah Bullish as all get-out, closing HOTD, utterly fearless. Look at RUT, OMG it's taking off?!?If Fed gets Dovey this will go just NUTS.
Picked up a few VIX $17 calls just in case it tanks on Weds PM after 2PM...
Note
Closed the VIX calls early AM for a push. After FOMC shorted the spike, covered, shorted again, bit my nails for 20 minutes wondering if that would ever pay, finally did; up 1K on the day, calling it good. Bloody Melt-ups!
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.