ROKU update: wave-iv complete or more complex!?
In my first update on ROKU, on August 9, I warned "bears would want to step aside until at least 138-140" as that price zone would provide for a more substantial top. I was then looking for "Based on Fib-extensions and retraces we should see this wave-iii top at around 138-140, then a pullback to about 112ish for a wave-iv of 5, before wave-v of 5 ideally targets the 148-150 zone.". Price reached $142 on August 14 and dropped as expected, but so far only to $127 last Friday, and is now trying to attack its ATH again.
So is all of wave-iv already in? It is possible as 4th waves can be shallow, but 4th waves are also known to be more often than not complex price structures (triangles, flags, and flats). So in this case, ROKU could be working on wave-b of iv, which can move beyond the ATH before wave-c of iv takes hold to bring price back down. Now this possible wave-c can then go beyond $127 or stall there. We don't and can't know this before hand. In the former case it will then be a regular "expanded flat" and in the latter case a less common "running flat". Time will tell... Bottom line, the bigger trade-able top from a short perspective has IMHO most likely not yet arrived and Bears would want to continue be nimble here as the irregular b-wave can reach as high as $144-149.
For now, the advance off Friday's low looks on a micro-scale better as 3 waves up, but can nonetheless still reach $149-153 if it wants to based on Fib-extensions and "a-wave to b-wave" relationships. That price level, in turn and however, would also fit with the wave-v of 5 of Cycle-C high (baring any possible extensions) and thus overall provide for a much better "top."
Trade Safe!
So is all of wave-iv already in? It is possible as 4th waves can be shallow, but 4th waves are also known to be more often than not complex price structures (triangles, flags, and flats). So in this case, ROKU could be working on wave-b of iv, which can move beyond the ATH before wave-c of iv takes hold to bring price back down. Now this possible wave-c can then go beyond $127 or stall there. We don't and can't know this before hand. In the former case it will then be a regular "expanded flat" and in the latter case a less common "running flat". Time will tell... Bottom line, the bigger trade-able top from a short perspective has IMHO most likely not yet arrived and Bears would want to continue be nimble here as the irregular b-wave can reach as high as $144-149.
For now, the advance off Friday's low looks on a micro-scale better as 3 waves up, but can nonetheless still reach $149-153 if it wants to based on Fib-extensions and "a-wave to b-wave" relationships. That price level, in turn and however, would also fit with the wave-v of 5 of Cycle-C high (baring any possible extensions) and thus overall provide for a much better "top."
Trade Safe!
Expert and Accurate Stock Market Forecasting
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
President & Founder Intelligent Investing, LLC
Vice President & Co-Founder NorthPost Partners, LP
Dr. Arnout ter Schure
President & Founder Intelligent Investing, LLC
Vice President & Co-Founder NorthPost Partners, LP
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