The Consumer is alright, right?
Dear Diarrhea,
I'm TradingOnAToilet, and this is my first installment of The Toilet Papers/Tv , A Crappy Trading Diary.
Anyone else been hearing a lot about the strong consumer? Yeah, me too. Seems like it's all over the place. Yelled from the stations and told about in hushed whispers at a gilded speakeasy.
This is all just the latest installment in a story we're all currently writing. Meanwhile, Millenials concerned with the world of Finance (all of us to varying degrees of interest ... and literacy) -i'm coining us FinMills- (im a millenial, bro. don't @ me) are starting to get our (insert acronym that makes me special here) brains in a debate on the ethics of cheering for or fearing for a recession.
All in all this is supposed to be part of the new 'good news is good news, but so is bad news' narrative being hawked. As if this weakness only means one thing, that the fed can't and won't hike. But what if we're past economics and more into the effects of geopolitics and international economics?
I'll leave this open ended as this is more a question than anything else.
Which leads me to another question actually.
If when creating the mother-of-all QE puts during the COVID freefall of 2020 we created the conditions for that thing we call inflation. And lets say just because that's how a globalized market works, that we exported that inflation. Well then what does that say about where we are now, and what the fed has to do? What if, more than about the economy (low key unproductive, high key 'tight' - see participation levels - ) this is about dollar confidence? We've come undone at an important historical junction. This is for next time but here's a quick taste of what i smell is cooking.
Anyways i'm off for now. Hope this was interesting, though i'm not sure its educational. This is meant to be consumed for entertainment purposes only, preferably whilst lost in your thoughts finishing your business at the nearest and most convenient throne. I'd say use it to wipe if nothing else, but this ain't print so....
Cheers,
TradingOnAToilet
PS:Mods if this cant be thematic like this my bad. Ill try harder next time, lmk if otherwise.
I'm TradingOnAToilet, and this is my first installment of The Toilet Papers/Tv , A Crappy Trading Diary.
Anyone else been hearing a lot about the strong consumer? Yeah, me too. Seems like it's all over the place. Yelled from the stations and told about in hushed whispers at a gilded speakeasy.
- Fed printed the June 7 Consumer Credit (I say then but this is rather further confirmation of trend than anything else really). - If you'd like a look : federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/g19.pdf
- US Consumer Credit visibly surging - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/us-consumer-credit-xxxx
- Quicklook: Consumer Credit Trend - Federal Reserve Via Bloomberg - pbs.twimg.com/media/FUrQIsTWYAQVK8d?format=jpg&name=medium
- Target cuts 2q profit expectations for the second time in 3 weeks (washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/07/target-profit-inventory/)
- Also the World Bank published its June 2022 Global Economic Prospects with adjustments to global growth outlooks. Its headline is especially notable : "Stagflation Risk Rises Amid Sharp Slowdown in Growth"
(Highlights: thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/18ad707266f7740bced755498ae0307a-0350012022/related/Global-Economic-Prospects-June-2022-Topical-Issue-1-highlights.pdf)
(FullReport: openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/37224/9781464818431.pdf)
This is all just the latest installment in a story we're all currently writing. Meanwhile, Millenials concerned with the world of Finance (all of us to varying degrees of interest ... and literacy) -i'm coining us FinMills- (im a millenial, bro. don't @ me) are starting to get our (insert acronym that makes me special here) brains in a debate on the ethics of cheering for or fearing for a recession.
All in all this is supposed to be part of the new 'good news is good news, but so is bad news' narrative being hawked. As if this weakness only means one thing, that the fed can't and won't hike. But what if we're past economics and more into the effects of geopolitics and international economics?
I'll leave this open ended as this is more a question than anything else.
Which leads me to another question actually.
If when creating the mother-of-all QE puts during the COVID freefall of 2020 we created the conditions for that thing we call inflation. And lets say just because that's how a globalized market works, that we exported that inflation. Well then what does that say about where we are now, and what the fed has to do? What if, more than about the economy (low key unproductive, high key 'tight' - see participation levels - ) this is about dollar confidence? We've come undone at an important historical junction. This is for next time but here's a quick taste of what i smell is cooking.
- India open to buying russian oil and gas assets (despite the 'west' pushing for 'sanctions') reuters.com/markets/europe/indias-gail-open-buying-russian-oil-gas-assets-chair-says-2022-05-27/
- Brazil has a huge stockpile of Russian fertilizer that its been 'replenishing' for months to help solve the very real global food crisis bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/fertilizers-piling-up-at-brazil-ports-signal-further-price-drop
- Not to mention the very confusing state of geopolitics with very unclear alliances, as they differ from theatre to theatre (why do we even use east and west?) reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-russian-forces-boosted-after-turkey-signals-operation-officials-2022-06-07/
Anyways i'm off for now. Hope this was interesting, though i'm not sure its educational. This is meant to be consumed for entertainment purposes only, preferably whilst lost in your thoughts finishing your business at the nearest and most convenient throne. I'd say use it to wipe if nothing else, but this ain't print so....
Cheers,
TradingOnAToilet
PS:Mods if this cant be thematic like this my bad. Ill try harder next time, lmk if otherwise.
Note
The acronym was ADHD. I realize the pitfalls to that sentence. Its an openly toilet-paper-quality diary.Note
6/8/2020 - US MBA Mortgage Apps: Further contraction at -6.5% from -2.3% prior for the week ending June 3. forexlive.com/news/us-mba-mortgage-applications-we-3-june-65-vs-23-prior-20220608/Note
Fed Releases US Financial Accts (data set through q1 2022) - household net worth down 0.5trln, driven by a balance of dropping stock prices and rising real estate valuations -- Household debt grew at 8.3% annualized--- NonFin Buis. Debt increased at 8.0% annualized fueled by rapid expansion of loans federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20220609/html/recent_developments.htmfull report permalink: federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20220609/z1.pdf
Note
Fed CPI Print:MoM 1%, vs 0.7 expected and 0.3% previous
YoY 8.6% vs 8.3% expected and 8.3% previous
Core YoY 6% vs 5.9% expected and 6.2 previous
Core MoM 0.6% vs 0.5% expected and 0.6% previous
Report: bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Note
U Mich Consumer SentimentJun May jun'21 MoM YoY
Index of Consumer Sentiment 50.2 58.4 85.5 -14.0% -41.3%
Current Economic Conditions 55.4 63.3 88.6 -12.5% -37.5%
Index of Consumer Expectations 46.8 55.2 83.5 -15.2% -44.0%
Note
US RETAIL SALES MoM-0.3% actual, 0.1 forecast, 0.9% previous
US Retail Sales YoY
8.09% actual, 8.19% previous
NY Fed Manufacturing
-1.2 actual, 2.3 forecast, -11.6 previous
Note
US Continued Jobless Claims1.312M Actual, 1.304M Forecast, 1.306M Previous
Note
US Initial Jobless Claims229k Actual, 216.5k Forecast, 229k Previous
Note
US Housing Starts1.549M Actual, 1.693M Forecast, 1.360M Previous
Note
US Building Permits1.695M Actual, 1.778M Forecast, 1.306M Previous
Note
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook SurveyIndex actual -3.3 (down 6 points from previous)
philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/mbos/2022/bos0622.pdf?la=en
Note
Nomura calls Q4 2022 recession; Projects US Real GDP into 2023 at -1% from +1.3%Note
Previous (6/15/2022) Atlanta Fed Real GDP estimate for 2022 Q2 at 0%Note
US New Home Sales 10.7% actual, from -16.6% previous census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
Note
UMich Conditions Final 53.85yr Inflation 3.1%
1yr inflation 5.3%
sca.isr.umich.edu/
Note
"More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase-Census Bureau survey shows 15% of renters aren’t caught up
-More will feel the squeeze as leases come due in the summer"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/over-8-million-americans-are-late-on-rents-as-prices-increase
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.