$S Potential H2 2024 Breakout After Extended Basing Period
Updated
S:1D
HH VWAP (highest high): yellow: 22.87
LL VWAP (lowest low): pink: 19.74
Major Fibs: left side
Minor Fibs: right side
After an extended, multi-year basing period
S appears ready to breakout to the upside over the remainder of 2024. That being said, the road to a breakout could be a bit rocky in the near term.
The stock has suffered a 29% peak to trough decline from YTD peak of 30.76 achieved on February 14, 2024. More recently, down guidance in mid-March of 2024 has led to a subsequent dip in analyst earnings forecasting for Q1, 2024, essentially having an attenuating effect on the potential for upside impulsivity to emerge.
I view the analyst 'down forecast' for Q1 2024 as 'isolated' given the steady increase in future earnings forecasting from Q2 2024 onward. Current quarterly earnings forecasts includes the potential for a milestone 'first' positive earnings print for Q3 2024 which could serve as the catalyst for a move to the upside. Increasing quarterly revenue forecasts appear undaunted by the potential for a down earnings quarter in Q1 of 2024 and continue to move 'up and to the right'. (see below)
Steadily increasing quarterly revenue streams are often indicative of a company expanding market share within their industry but can be the product of an expanding market within the industry itself resulting in a particular company increasing their revenues without increasing their actual market share. In order to meaningfully expand market shareS would need to begin taking share from its industry competitors in a more accelerated and aggressive manner.
Signal is currently resting slightly above the HH VWAP (yellow) at 22.87 and remains above the RET 0.5 (20.52) from early November 2023 lows but has yet to reach an 'oversold' state of 30 or below on the 1D RSI which could, theoretically, be achieved with a downward move to below the LL VWAP (pink) at 19.74. Volume flows as measured by OBV (bottom indicator) have fallen below the 50 day simple moving average but remain positive and seem to be finding potential support slightly above prior resistance which peaked in early June of 2023.
Upside target to reach before EOY 2024, is the RET 1.382 (35.43) level which is roughly 51.99% above the current price of 23.31. Trade would invalidate with a 3 bar, 'body close below the line' of the RET 0.236 (17.43) level on the 1D time frame.
Chart is in log scale and Fib levels are based on log scale.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
HH VWAP (highest high): yellow: 22.87
LL VWAP (lowest low): pink: 19.74
Major Fibs: left side
Minor Fibs: right side
After an extended, multi-year basing period
S appears ready to breakout to the upside over the remainder of 2024. That being said, the road to a breakout could be a bit rocky in the near term. The stock has suffered a 29% peak to trough decline from YTD peak of 30.76 achieved on February 14, 2024. More recently, down guidance in mid-March of 2024 has led to a subsequent dip in analyst earnings forecasting for Q1, 2024, essentially having an attenuating effect on the potential for upside impulsivity to emerge.
I view the analyst 'down forecast' for Q1 2024 as 'isolated' given the steady increase in future earnings forecasting from Q2 2024 onward. Current quarterly earnings forecasts includes the potential for a milestone 'first' positive earnings print for Q3 2024 which could serve as the catalyst for a move to the upside. Increasing quarterly revenue forecasts appear undaunted by the potential for a down earnings quarter in Q1 of 2024 and continue to move 'up and to the right'. (see below)
Steadily increasing quarterly revenue streams are often indicative of a company expanding market share within their industry but can be the product of an expanding market within the industry itself resulting in a particular company increasing their revenues without increasing their actual market share. In order to meaningfully expand market share
S would need to begin taking share from its industry competitors in a more accelerated and aggressive manner. Signal is currently resting slightly above the HH VWAP (yellow) at 22.87 and remains above the RET 0.5 (20.52) from early November 2023 lows but has yet to reach an 'oversold' state of 30 or below on the 1D RSI which could, theoretically, be achieved with a downward move to below the LL VWAP (pink) at 19.74. Volume flows as measured by OBV (bottom indicator) have fallen below the 50 day simple moving average but remain positive and seem to be finding potential support slightly above prior resistance which peaked in early June of 2023.
Upside target to reach before EOY 2024, is the RET 1.382 (35.43) level which is roughly 51.99% above the current price of 23.31. Trade would invalidate with a 3 bar, 'body close below the line' of the RET 0.236 (17.43) level on the 1D time frame.
Chart is in log scale and Fib levels are based on log scale.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Note
Signal reaches lowest RSI level on record last Friday. A move above the LL VWAP (pink) would be the first step in reclaiming positive trend. EOY price targets remain the same.
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