Shopify - It's Bear *and* Bull Hunting Season
Updated
Before Shopify's 10:1 split, it was trading for $1,800 USD. Notable because it was the Toronto Stock Exchange's biggest stock, trading over $2,000 CAD. This was the kind of stock that all the eyes used to be on.
The company processes payments on the Internet and the work from home lockdown glory days are gone. The next time we're all under house arrest will be because the governments want to act like the Chinese Communist Party; the priority won't be keeping people stable and placated like it was in 2020. Things will be scary, and so the fundamentals for this company will never be as good as they were before.
That being said, it looks like we're about to head/already heading into what I believe is a tech bear trap before Nasdaq goes big or goes home, a two-sided move which I outlined a few weeks ago:
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears
Shopify is something to keep on your radar because, no matter how they file shelf offerings to dilute their share count and how that ought to affect share price because it's a really a function of marketcap, Shopify is the kind of thing that likes to go up and down 10 or 15 percent in a day, and when it does go, it has significantly major upside potential, which you can see on weekly bars:
And look, I get it, $45 --> $30 --> $115 is a real too good to be true sort of call, but it's not without its principled rationality.
After 179 trading days and 263 real days of consolidation, Shopify finally started to take out highs in the earliest part of '23. This comes after it took out significant long term lows in the October Low of the Year for indexes.
These two factors combine to tell you that the algorithms no longer point down, but point up. It's only that there is the risk that the "up" peaked when the stops over $50 were taken and everything is going down for real now. I'm only partially psychic. You'll have to get Jamie Dimon and Ken Griffin to tell you the concrete manifestation of what's going to happen.
But Shopify's price action is not that significantly different from what Netflix has done, except Netflix just never bothered to run the bottom and never really liked to go down, and has already gone up significantly.
What bears are missing from their doom thesis is this:
The markets will crash when the Federal Reserve pivots, not before. It's a "buy the rumor, sell the news" equation, my friends. They've been hiking for over a year, and long term, none of the big 3 indexes are actually bearish on monthly or weekly candles.
What people don't realize is that everything is setting up for a situation where inflation appears to be waning and will continue to appear to be waning for the next few months, and it's because we're in winter. This apparently deflationary environment will set the stage for the narrative that leads us to Nasdaq 14,500+.
Natural gas, oil, and gasoline will all supermooncycle in the summer because of significantly increased societal demand, and that means food, goods, services all go up too.
And in the meantime, the Fed is going to continue to hike at least 25 bps a session. So they're going to hike and hike and we're going to walk right back into big inflationary numbers starting in late May and through July while the FFR is already too high.
The Fed won't be able to start hiking 50 and 75 bps when we're already at 5.5% because the national debt is so super bloated thanks to the U.S. socialists spending trillions and trillions of dollars on so-called "stimulus," which really just amounts to raiding the Treasury and the future generations like pirates.
And so, the Fed is going to be forced to pivot at the worst time: in the middle of inflation that was worse than 2022, and the two factors combined is what is really going to cause the big gap downs.
And the gaps are going to run, because the Fed obviously won't be able to bail out the market this time, so there won't be any hopium for retail to huff.
There are other things that can unfold geopolitically around the same time, like the collapse of Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party, Russia defeating NATO in Ukraine, and large scale environmental disaster and significant genuine pandemic diseases that are beyond the control of the globalists and their technology.
All of this combines to tell you that the dumpster the bears dream of is far away, which means that much higher prices are coming. It presents a death trap for people who are obediently following Discord signal groups, Zerohedge, Fintwit, and CNBC, instead of thinking for themselves, and an opportunity for the "few" who understand that "The Big Short" is being set up, and that "The Big Short" inherently means a run back towards high levels.
So buy this coming dip, don't capitulate, and enjoy the fruit of the moon mission that is the biggest exit pump of all time. Just make sure you get out, take profit, and keep your risk light.
You have to keep your eye on the Chinese Communist Party. It's been two weeks since the Lunar New Year and all the resulting travel stimulus from hundreds of millions of people being freed from months of house arrest have finished, and now there are reports that there are multiple significant mutations of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 emerging all over the world.
Meanwhile, if you check Our World in Data or the other aggregators, you'll see that the CCP claims there have been 0.00 new COVID cases or deaths since roughly Jan. 6.
This is obviously totally impossible. Not to mention the Communist Party is a chronic liar that only cares about its "stability" and isn't one bit concerned with how many people might die as it lies to the world and the Chinese people.
All of this should tell you that the pandemic situation is volatile outside of China, and extremely dangerous inside of China. The situation could devolve at any time, and at any time you can be stuck on the wrong side of a gap.
What you have to understand about the Communist Party and the globalist factors who have cultivated its methods and ways, who seek to export them globally for the unveiling of the One World Government/New World Order, is that the Specter of Communism's life's work is to destroy your life and to destroy humanity.
No joke. Its fundamental wish and its fundamental goal is to ruin each and every person and each and every thing. And so, the test for all of Creation is whether you can evidence, with both your words and deeds, that you don't want the Devil Red, and instead you want to enter the future that is the resurrection of China's 5,000 year-old culture of Heavenly Dynasties.
The choice is yours. It's your job to choose.
It's my job to tell you these words.
The company processes payments on the Internet and the work from home lockdown glory days are gone. The next time we're all under house arrest will be because the governments want to act like the Chinese Communist Party; the priority won't be keeping people stable and placated like it was in 2020. Things will be scary, and so the fundamentals for this company will never be as good as they were before.
That being said, it looks like we're about to head/already heading into what I believe is a tech bear trap before Nasdaq goes big or goes home, a two-sided move which I outlined a few weeks ago:
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears
Shopify is something to keep on your radar because, no matter how they file shelf offerings to dilute their share count and how that ought to affect share price because it's a really a function of marketcap, Shopify is the kind of thing that likes to go up and down 10 or 15 percent in a day, and when it does go, it has significantly major upside potential, which you can see on weekly bars:
And look, I get it, $45 --> $30 --> $115 is a real too good to be true sort of call, but it's not without its principled rationality.
After 179 trading days and 263 real days of consolidation, Shopify finally started to take out highs in the earliest part of '23. This comes after it took out significant long term lows in the October Low of the Year for indexes.
These two factors combine to tell you that the algorithms no longer point down, but point up. It's only that there is the risk that the "up" peaked when the stops over $50 were taken and everything is going down for real now. I'm only partially psychic. You'll have to get Jamie Dimon and Ken Griffin to tell you the concrete manifestation of what's going to happen.
But Shopify's price action is not that significantly different from what Netflix has done, except Netflix just never bothered to run the bottom and never really liked to go down, and has already gone up significantly.
What bears are missing from their doom thesis is this:
The markets will crash when the Federal Reserve pivots, not before. It's a "buy the rumor, sell the news" equation, my friends. They've been hiking for over a year, and long term, none of the big 3 indexes are actually bearish on monthly or weekly candles.
What people don't realize is that everything is setting up for a situation where inflation appears to be waning and will continue to appear to be waning for the next few months, and it's because we're in winter. This apparently deflationary environment will set the stage for the narrative that leads us to Nasdaq 14,500+.
Natural gas, oil, and gasoline will all supermooncycle in the summer because of significantly increased societal demand, and that means food, goods, services all go up too.
And in the meantime, the Fed is going to continue to hike at least 25 bps a session. So they're going to hike and hike and we're going to walk right back into big inflationary numbers starting in late May and through July while the FFR is already too high.
The Fed won't be able to start hiking 50 and 75 bps when we're already at 5.5% because the national debt is so super bloated thanks to the U.S. socialists spending trillions and trillions of dollars on so-called "stimulus," which really just amounts to raiding the Treasury and the future generations like pirates.
And so, the Fed is going to be forced to pivot at the worst time: in the middle of inflation that was worse than 2022, and the two factors combined is what is really going to cause the big gap downs.
And the gaps are going to run, because the Fed obviously won't be able to bail out the market this time, so there won't be any hopium for retail to huff.
There are other things that can unfold geopolitically around the same time, like the collapse of Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party, Russia defeating NATO in Ukraine, and large scale environmental disaster and significant genuine pandemic diseases that are beyond the control of the globalists and their technology.
All of this combines to tell you that the dumpster the bears dream of is far away, which means that much higher prices are coming. It presents a death trap for people who are obediently following Discord signal groups, Zerohedge, Fintwit, and CNBC, instead of thinking for themselves, and an opportunity for the "few" who understand that "The Big Short" is being set up, and that "The Big Short" inherently means a run back towards high levels.
So buy this coming dip, don't capitulate, and enjoy the fruit of the moon mission that is the biggest exit pump of all time. Just make sure you get out, take profit, and keep your risk light.
You have to keep your eye on the Chinese Communist Party. It's been two weeks since the Lunar New Year and all the resulting travel stimulus from hundreds of millions of people being freed from months of house arrest have finished, and now there are reports that there are multiple significant mutations of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 emerging all over the world.
Meanwhile, if you check Our World in Data or the other aggregators, you'll see that the CCP claims there have been 0.00 new COVID cases or deaths since roughly Jan. 6.
This is obviously totally impossible. Not to mention the Communist Party is a chronic liar that only cares about its "stability" and isn't one bit concerned with how many people might die as it lies to the world and the Chinese people.
All of this should tell you that the pandemic situation is volatile outside of China, and extremely dangerous inside of China. The situation could devolve at any time, and at any time you can be stuck on the wrong side of a gap.
What you have to understand about the Communist Party and the globalist factors who have cultivated its methods and ways, who seek to export them globally for the unveiling of the One World Government/New World Order, is that the Specter of Communism's life's work is to destroy your life and to destroy humanity.
No joke. Its fundamental wish and its fundamental goal is to ruin each and every person and each and every thing. And so, the test for all of Creation is whether you can evidence, with both your words and deeds, that you don't want the Devil Red, and instead you want to enter the future that is the resurrection of China's 5,000 year-old culture of Heavenly Dynasties.
The choice is yours. It's your job to choose.
It's my job to tell you these words.
Note
5% down two hours into the day is very Spotify.Does this on the way back up too.
Note
Right now the velocity on this dump isn't particularly notable. Shopify to $35 is a very likely bullish confirmation.Note
I saw some posts that were bullish on Shopify already and I really think that's fine if you're going to hold long term.But if you're leveraged or using options, I think the most important thing is to get rid of the fear of missing the bottom
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