SMH/SPY | Bullish Breakout | Tech Rotation Signal | (June 8, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
The SMH (Semiconductor ETF) vs. SPY (S&P 500 ETF) ratio is breaking out of a key parallel channel, signaling strong capital rotation into semiconductors. This often precedes broader tech strength — and it’s happening now.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters (Indicator View):
Bias: Bullish for SMH (and leading semis like NVDA, AVGO, TSM, AMD)
Entry Zone: Current breakout level on SMH/SPY ratio
TP1 (First Take Profit Area): Watch for continuation upside in SMH outperforming SPY
❌ No Stop Loss: This is a market strength indicator, not a direct trade setup
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Breakout Context: The breakout from the parallel channel suggests relative strength in semiconductors. Historically, this precedes runs in NVDA, Broadcom, and TSM — all major SMH components.
📈 Macro Implication: When SMH outperforms SPY, it typically means one of two things is happening:
— Semiconductors are gaining strength (bullish for tech)
— The S&P 500 is weakening (capital flows into more resilient sectors)
Either way, semis benefit.
🧠 Investor Psychology: With market volatility rising (VIX 37+), investors often move into tech leaders, gold, USD, and now even BTC. SMH is a top contender in this rotation.
❌ Invalidation: If the SMH/SPY ratio falls back inside the channel, it would invalidate the breakout thesis — a sign to stay cautious.
4️⃣ Follow-Up:
I'll continue monitoring this indicator — it’s not a direct trade but a macro signal for strength in leading tech names. If it holds above the channel, the upside potential remains strong.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
The SMH (Semiconductor ETF) vs. SPY (S&P 500 ETF) ratio is breaking out of a key parallel channel, signaling strong capital rotation into semiconductors. This often precedes broader tech strength — and it’s happening now.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters (Indicator View):
Bias: Bullish for SMH (and leading semis like NVDA, AVGO, TSM, AMD)
Entry Zone: Current breakout level on SMH/SPY ratio
TP1 (First Take Profit Area): Watch for continuation upside in SMH outperforming SPY
❌ No Stop Loss: This is a market strength indicator, not a direct trade setup
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Breakout Context: The breakout from the parallel channel suggests relative strength in semiconductors. Historically, this precedes runs in NVDA, Broadcom, and TSM — all major SMH components.
📈 Macro Implication: When SMH outperforms SPY, it typically means one of two things is happening:
— Semiconductors are gaining strength (bullish for tech)
— The S&P 500 is weakening (capital flows into more resilient sectors)
Either way, semis benefit.
🧠 Investor Psychology: With market volatility rising (VIX 37+), investors often move into tech leaders, gold, USD, and now even BTC. SMH is a top contender in this rotation.
❌ Invalidation: If the SMH/SPY ratio falls back inside the channel, it would invalidate the breakout thesis — a sign to stay cautious.
4️⃣ Follow-Up:
I'll continue monitoring this indicator — it’s not a direct trade but a macro signal for strength in leading tech names. If it holds above the channel, the upside potential remains strong.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
2 Ways I can help you | Real Trades. Real Edge
1️⃣ The 4 Steps to Improve Your Trading Immediately: tradinggen.services/mohamad-link/
2️⃣ Get trade setups & breakdowns Here: t.me/TradeSimple_with_Mo
1️⃣ The 4 Steps to Improve Your Trading Immediately: tradinggen.services/mohamad-link/
2️⃣ Get trade setups & breakdowns Here: t.me/TradeSimple_with_Mo
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
2 Ways I can help you | Real Trades. Real Edge
1️⃣ The 4 Steps to Improve Your Trading Immediately: tradinggen.services/mohamad-link/
2️⃣ Get trade setups & breakdowns Here: t.me/TradeSimple_with_Mo
1️⃣ The 4 Steps to Improve Your Trading Immediately: tradinggen.services/mohamad-link/
2️⃣ Get trade setups & breakdowns Here: t.me/TradeSimple_with_Mo
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.