Recap and Bias
The short-term bullish “orange” bounce scenario from the previous analysis failed to materialize. Solana’s price was rejected near 150, printing a lower high, and has since dropped back into the mid 140s. This confirms that the recent rally was a dead-cat bounce rather than a trend reversal.
The updated bias is cautiously bearish. This stems from rejection at resistance, weakening momentum, and a deteriorating volume profile. Unless price reclaims the 148 to 150 zone with strength, the bears remain in control. Only a decisive breakout above that level would shift the short-term outlook back to bullish.
Macro Context
Global risk sentiment remains fragile. The sudden escalation between Israel and Iran in early June, including reports of missile strikes, sparked a flight to safety. Solana’s rally quickly reversed, with price dropping over 15 percent since June 11.
Other geopolitical flashpoints also continue to weigh on investor confidence. The protracted war in Ukraine and ongoing disruptions in Red Sea trade routes have fueled broader market caution. This is contributing to periodic risk-off moves and spikes in volatility across both traditional and crypto markets.
On the economic side, uncertainty around US monetary policy is adding to pressure. Although May inflation cooled slightly, investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming Fed decisions. Crypto assets have traded weakly into these events, reflecting a wait-and-see approach.
Taken together, this geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop is driving elevated short-term volatility and a higher risk premium in the crypto space. In this context, market participants are increasingly hesitant to take large directional bets without a clear catalyst.
One such catalyst may be the potential approval of a Solana ETF. Optimism has grown, with prediction markets now placing the likelihood of approval near 76 percent by late July. If approved, this could be a game-changing event that re-rates SOL’s medium-term valuation and breaks it out of its current downtrend.
Until then, traders should remain cautious and assume headline risk is elevated.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Outlook
Daily and 4H Trend
The high timeframe structure shows a clear downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows are intact. A double top formation from May broke down cleanly. Most recently, Solana was rejected at a key Fibonacci confluence zone around 149 to 151, which included the 0.618 retracement, the 20-day SMA, and a well-defined supply zone.
After that rejection, SOL has traded along the lower Bollinger Band with increasing volatility. The 20 SMA is now acting as dynamic resistance. All major trendlines have broken.
2H, 1H, and 30m Perspective
Shorter-term charts show SOL attempting to base near 143 to 145 support. Several oversold RSI conditions have triggered bounces, but these have lacked momentum. Harmonic pattern recognition shows that a bearish Deep Crab completed near 152, which marked the local top.
Currently, price remains pinned below descending trendlines and the 1H 20 EMA. Bullish momentum has yet to reappear in any meaningful way.
Key Technical Factors
Resistance: 149 to 151
This zone holds multiple levels of confluence. It includes the 50 to 61.8 percent retracement of the last swing, a 1.272 Fib extension, the 20-day SMA, and prior supply. The rejection at 151.7 was sharp and decisive. Unless price reclaims this zone, it remains a ceiling.
Support: 142 to 145
This is the last meaningful support zone holding price up. It is the neckline of a 12H Head and Shoulders pattern and the base of a previous multi-week range. It also coincides with the lower bound of a prior rising channel. The 50-day MA and 0.236 Fib retracement are also near this zone. If this area breaks, sellers will likely target 130 to 135 next.
Momentum: RSI 14 with MA Overlay
Daily RSI rolled over from above 70 with bearish divergence as price topped. RSI is now below its MA across all timeframes, reflecting negative momentum. On the 4H chart, RSI dipped below 30 and remains weak despite minor relief bounces. Lower timeframes show early divergence but no confirmed reversal signals.
Trend Structure
Price continues to make lower highs and lower lows. The 200-day MA was lost weeks ago. The 50-day is now flattening near 140. A death cross recently printed on the 12H chart, confirming bearish short-term pressure.
Volume and PVT
Volume favors the bears. PVT is in decline, showing more volume on down days than up days. The rally to 150 occurred on weak volume, while selloffs continue to show increasing size. This signals distribution, not accumulation.
Harmonic Patterns
A bearish Deep Crab pattern completed at the recent high. No bullish harmonics are confirmed yet. Traders should monitor the 130 to 125 zone for potential bullish completion patterns like a Gartley or Bat. If those form with oversold signals, they could mark the bottom.
Green Scenario: Bullish Breakout Path
Bias
Only valid on confirmed breakout
Trigger
Break and hold above 150. Ideally, an hourly close above 150 or daily close above 152 confirms the move.
Confirmation
Rising volume, RSI reclaiming 50, and a PVT uptick. A retest of 148 to 150 from above would reinforce the breakout.
Targets
First target is 155, which aligns with the 12H 50 EMA.
Second target is 162 to 165.
Extended targets include 170 to 180 and eventually the 200 psychological level if ETF news hits.
Stop Loss
Below 147 or back inside the 143 zone would invalidate the breakout and suggest a failed move.
Logic
If bulls reclaim 150 with strength, this would invalidate the lower-high structure. Shorts would begin covering and momentum could quickly shift. Breakout entries should focus on confirmation and volume expansion.
Red Scenario: Bearish Breakdown Continuation
Bias
Default scenario
Trigger
Clean break below 142. Daily close under 140 confirms the H and S neckline break.
Confirmation
Failing retests of 142, rising sell volume, and RSI staying suppressed. Price action showing impulsive red candles validates the move.
Targets
First target is 130 to 135.
Second target is 115 to 120.
Final measured move would project into the 100 to 110 zone if trend acceleration continues.
Stop Loss
Any reclaim of 145 to 148 would likely invalidate the breakdown and trap late sellers.
Logic
If this support fails, shorts will press. Bounces will likely be sold into. Traders can enter on the break or the first failed retest of 142. Consider scaling out near 135 and trail stops from there.
Strategy Summary
Current Bias
Leaning bearish unless bulls reclaim 150
Key Levels
148 to 150 is breakout zone
142 to 140 is breakdown zone
Trading Strategy
Range traders can play 144 to 150 but must be nimble
Breakout traders should wait for confirmation above 150
Breakdown traders can short under 140 with stops over 145
Risk Management
Volatility is elevated. Trade smaller size. Use tight stops and trail them. Wait for confirmation, not anticipation. Watch ETF news closely. If delayed, expect continued weakness.
The short-term bullish “orange” bounce scenario from the previous analysis failed to materialize. Solana’s price was rejected near 150, printing a lower high, and has since dropped back into the mid 140s. This confirms that the recent rally was a dead-cat bounce rather than a trend reversal.
The updated bias is cautiously bearish. This stems from rejection at resistance, weakening momentum, and a deteriorating volume profile. Unless price reclaims the 148 to 150 zone with strength, the bears remain in control. Only a decisive breakout above that level would shift the short-term outlook back to bullish.
Macro Context
Global risk sentiment remains fragile. The sudden escalation between Israel and Iran in early June, including reports of missile strikes, sparked a flight to safety. Solana’s rally quickly reversed, with price dropping over 15 percent since June 11.
Other geopolitical flashpoints also continue to weigh on investor confidence. The protracted war in Ukraine and ongoing disruptions in Red Sea trade routes have fueled broader market caution. This is contributing to periodic risk-off moves and spikes in volatility across both traditional and crypto markets.
On the economic side, uncertainty around US monetary policy is adding to pressure. Although May inflation cooled slightly, investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming Fed decisions. Crypto assets have traded weakly into these events, reflecting a wait-and-see approach.
Taken together, this geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop is driving elevated short-term volatility and a higher risk premium in the crypto space. In this context, market participants are increasingly hesitant to take large directional bets without a clear catalyst.
One such catalyst may be the potential approval of a Solana ETF. Optimism has grown, with prediction markets now placing the likelihood of approval near 76 percent by late July. If approved, this could be a game-changing event that re-rates SOL’s medium-term valuation and breaks it out of its current downtrend.
Until then, traders should remain cautious and assume headline risk is elevated.
Multi-Timeframe Technical Outlook
Daily and 4H Trend
The high timeframe structure shows a clear downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows are intact. A double top formation from May broke down cleanly. Most recently, Solana was rejected at a key Fibonacci confluence zone around 149 to 151, which included the 0.618 retracement, the 20-day SMA, and a well-defined supply zone.
After that rejection, SOL has traded along the lower Bollinger Band with increasing volatility. The 20 SMA is now acting as dynamic resistance. All major trendlines have broken.
2H, 1H, and 30m Perspective
Shorter-term charts show SOL attempting to base near 143 to 145 support. Several oversold RSI conditions have triggered bounces, but these have lacked momentum. Harmonic pattern recognition shows that a bearish Deep Crab completed near 152, which marked the local top.
Currently, price remains pinned below descending trendlines and the 1H 20 EMA. Bullish momentum has yet to reappear in any meaningful way.
Key Technical Factors
Resistance: 149 to 151
This zone holds multiple levels of confluence. It includes the 50 to 61.8 percent retracement of the last swing, a 1.272 Fib extension, the 20-day SMA, and prior supply. The rejection at 151.7 was sharp and decisive. Unless price reclaims this zone, it remains a ceiling.
Support: 142 to 145
This is the last meaningful support zone holding price up. It is the neckline of a 12H Head and Shoulders pattern and the base of a previous multi-week range. It also coincides with the lower bound of a prior rising channel. The 50-day MA and 0.236 Fib retracement are also near this zone. If this area breaks, sellers will likely target 130 to 135 next.
Momentum: RSI 14 with MA Overlay
Daily RSI rolled over from above 70 with bearish divergence as price topped. RSI is now below its MA across all timeframes, reflecting negative momentum. On the 4H chart, RSI dipped below 30 and remains weak despite minor relief bounces. Lower timeframes show early divergence but no confirmed reversal signals.
Trend Structure
Price continues to make lower highs and lower lows. The 200-day MA was lost weeks ago. The 50-day is now flattening near 140. A death cross recently printed on the 12H chart, confirming bearish short-term pressure.
Volume and PVT
Volume favors the bears. PVT is in decline, showing more volume on down days than up days. The rally to 150 occurred on weak volume, while selloffs continue to show increasing size. This signals distribution, not accumulation.
Harmonic Patterns
A bearish Deep Crab pattern completed at the recent high. No bullish harmonics are confirmed yet. Traders should monitor the 130 to 125 zone for potential bullish completion patterns like a Gartley or Bat. If those form with oversold signals, they could mark the bottom.
Green Scenario: Bullish Breakout Path
Bias
Only valid on confirmed breakout
Trigger
Break and hold above 150. Ideally, an hourly close above 150 or daily close above 152 confirms the move.
Confirmation
Rising volume, RSI reclaiming 50, and a PVT uptick. A retest of 148 to 150 from above would reinforce the breakout.
Targets
First target is 155, which aligns with the 12H 50 EMA.
Second target is 162 to 165.
Extended targets include 170 to 180 and eventually the 200 psychological level if ETF news hits.
Stop Loss
Below 147 or back inside the 143 zone would invalidate the breakout and suggest a failed move.
Logic
If bulls reclaim 150 with strength, this would invalidate the lower-high structure. Shorts would begin covering and momentum could quickly shift. Breakout entries should focus on confirmation and volume expansion.
Red Scenario: Bearish Breakdown Continuation
Bias
Default scenario
Trigger
Clean break below 142. Daily close under 140 confirms the H and S neckline break.
Confirmation
Failing retests of 142, rising sell volume, and RSI staying suppressed. Price action showing impulsive red candles validates the move.
Targets
First target is 130 to 135.
Second target is 115 to 120.
Final measured move would project into the 100 to 110 zone if trend acceleration continues.
Stop Loss
Any reclaim of 145 to 148 would likely invalidate the breakdown and trap late sellers.
Logic
If this support fails, shorts will press. Bounces will likely be sold into. Traders can enter on the break or the first failed retest of 142. Consider scaling out near 135 and trail stops from there.
Strategy Summary
Current Bias
Leaning bearish unless bulls reclaim 150
Key Levels
148 to 150 is breakout zone
142 to 140 is breakdown zone
Trading Strategy
Range traders can play 144 to 150 but must be nimble
Breakout traders should wait for confirmation above 150
Breakdown traders can short under 140 with stops over 145
Risk Management
Volatility is elevated. Trade smaller size. Use tight stops and trail them. Wait for confirmation, not anticipation. Watch ETF news closely. If delayed, expect continued weakness.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.