Over the past ten months, Solana’s price action has swung from manic highs down to panic lows—and now into a disciplined base:
Euphoric Rally (Oct ’24 – Dec ’24)
SOL surged from ~$100 to a December peak near $290 on booming DeFi activity, NFT hype, and new network tooling.
The green‐shaded bars in late November/early December mark a near-vertical ramp, with “B” buy signals clustering as momentum supercharged itself.
Brutal Unwind (Jan ’25 – Mar ’25)
Once Bitcoin stalled and macro headwinds arrived, SOL gave back almost two-thirds of its value, plunging from $270 to a $96 trough by mid-March.
Red “S” sell markers at lower highs confirmed aggressive profit-taking and capitulation.
Disciplined Base Building (Mar ’25 – May ’25)
A clear single bottom at the P0 pivot around $96 (also last year’s low) drew in fresh bids each time price tested that floor.
Since early April, SOL has chopped sideways between $100–$140, tightening volatility and coiling like a spring.
2. Technical Anatomy of the Bounce
As of today, SOL sits at $175.43, flirting with short-term resistance and carving out a fresh up-move:
Level Price Role
Current (Monday’s High) $175.43 First line for breakout conviction
Year-Open Pivot (Y0) $189.50 Next hurdle—flip to support if cleared
Year-High (YH) $295.00 Measured target of the Dec rally
Dynamic Fib R1 $160.56 Prior falling-wedge resistance, now support
Dynamic Fib R3 $137.76 Secondary support on pullbacks
Volume & Momentum: Recent green candles have arrived on increasing volume, and fractal buy signals (“B” dots) cluster on each higher low—classic signs of renewed demand.
Pattern Resolution: What looked like a falling wedge from January has broken up through its upper trendline, validating the bullish bias.
3. Catalysts & Sentiment Drivers
Macro Tailwinds: Any dovish shift in Fed policy or a sustained Bitcoin rally above $70K will likely turbocharge altcoins like SOL.
On-Chain Upgrades: Watch for network announcements (e.g., new staking features, throughput improvements) that can reignite developer interest.
Event Flow:
FTX Claim Distributions: Final phases due in late May could return tokens into the ecosystem and fuel liquidity.
DeFi Incentive Programs: Fresh liquidity mining launches often spark sharp altcoin reprieves.
4. Strategic Playbook
Aggressive Entry:
Trigger: A daily close above $175.43 (Monday’s high) locks in the breakout.
Targets:
$189.50 (Y0 pivot)
$230–$250 (interim swing highs)
$295 (YH, the December peak)
Risk-Managed Longs:
Pullback Setup: A retrace to $160.56 (Dynamic Fib R1) offers a lower-risk entry with tight stops below $155.
Stop Loss: Under $137.76 (Dynamic Fib R3) keeps you clear of a retest of the March low.
Option Flavor:
Call Spreads: Consider a $180/$200 call spread into June expiries—defined risk with asymmetric upside if SOL breaks higher.
Caution:
A failure to hold $160 on a daily close exposes SOL back to the coiled range ($140–$100), so trim or hedge if that level cracks.
5. Conclusion: Coiled for Altseason
Solana’s collapse from $290 to $96 cleaned out weak hands. The subsequent wedge-style base and recent breakout attempt speak to a market that’s ready for its next leg up—provided it can conquer $175.43 and flip $189.50. Keep an eye on on-chain news and macro flows: if they align, SOL could sprint toward $230 and beyond, rejoining the next chapter of crypto’s broader altseason.
Euphoric Rally (Oct ’24 – Dec ’24)
SOL surged from ~$100 to a December peak near $290 on booming DeFi activity, NFT hype, and new network tooling.
The green‐shaded bars in late November/early December mark a near-vertical ramp, with “B” buy signals clustering as momentum supercharged itself.
Brutal Unwind (Jan ’25 – Mar ’25)
Once Bitcoin stalled and macro headwinds arrived, SOL gave back almost two-thirds of its value, plunging from $270 to a $96 trough by mid-March.
Red “S” sell markers at lower highs confirmed aggressive profit-taking and capitulation.
Disciplined Base Building (Mar ’25 – May ’25)
A clear single bottom at the P0 pivot around $96 (also last year’s low) drew in fresh bids each time price tested that floor.
Since early April, SOL has chopped sideways between $100–$140, tightening volatility and coiling like a spring.
2. Technical Anatomy of the Bounce
As of today, SOL sits at $175.43, flirting with short-term resistance and carving out a fresh up-move:
Level Price Role
Current (Monday’s High) $175.43 First line for breakout conviction
Year-Open Pivot (Y0) $189.50 Next hurdle—flip to support if cleared
Year-High (YH) $295.00 Measured target of the Dec rally
Dynamic Fib R1 $160.56 Prior falling-wedge resistance, now support
Dynamic Fib R3 $137.76 Secondary support on pullbacks
Volume & Momentum: Recent green candles have arrived on increasing volume, and fractal buy signals (“B” dots) cluster on each higher low—classic signs of renewed demand.
Pattern Resolution: What looked like a falling wedge from January has broken up through its upper trendline, validating the bullish bias.
3. Catalysts & Sentiment Drivers
Macro Tailwinds: Any dovish shift in Fed policy or a sustained Bitcoin rally above $70K will likely turbocharge altcoins like SOL.
On-Chain Upgrades: Watch for network announcements (e.g., new staking features, throughput improvements) that can reignite developer interest.
Event Flow:
FTX Claim Distributions: Final phases due in late May could return tokens into the ecosystem and fuel liquidity.
DeFi Incentive Programs: Fresh liquidity mining launches often spark sharp altcoin reprieves.
4. Strategic Playbook
Aggressive Entry:
Trigger: A daily close above $175.43 (Monday’s high) locks in the breakout.
Targets:
$189.50 (Y0 pivot)
$230–$250 (interim swing highs)
$295 (YH, the December peak)
Risk-Managed Longs:
Pullback Setup: A retrace to $160.56 (Dynamic Fib R1) offers a lower-risk entry with tight stops below $155.
Stop Loss: Under $137.76 (Dynamic Fib R3) keeps you clear of a retest of the March low.
Option Flavor:
Call Spreads: Consider a $180/$200 call spread into June expiries—defined risk with asymmetric upside if SOL breaks higher.
Caution:
A failure to hold $160 on a daily close exposes SOL back to the coiled range ($140–$100), so trim or hedge if that level cracks.
5. Conclusion: Coiled for Altseason
Solana’s collapse from $290 to $96 cleaned out weak hands. The subsequent wedge-style base and recent breakout attempt speak to a market that’s ready for its next leg up—provided it can conquer $175.43 and flip $189.50. Keep an eye on on-chain news and macro flows: if they align, SOL could sprint toward $230 and beyond, rejoining the next chapter of crypto’s broader altseason.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.