Virgin Galactic New All Time Lows & Price Decline Targets
Updated
Hi Guys! This is a Technical Analysis on Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) on the 3 Day Timeframe.
We have been on a continual PRICE DECLINE since our MAJOR REJECTION, June 22, 2023.
Its depicted by the Massive ENGULFING BEAR Candle.
This area was also a Major RESISTANCE area with convergence of the RED and PURPLE lines.
Note that Previous times we've had touch points on the PURPLE Upper Trendline of the Channel we've had massive PRICE DECLINES.
1st one = 53%
2nd one = 60%
3rd one = 54%
At the time of my previous posted Idea, we had closed below the BLACK SUPPORT trendline. But i mentioned we needed "Confirmation". Well its absolutely CONFIRMED, and thus continual price decline. (Check out my previous idea on SPCE BELOW for more context.)
We have also reached 2 of our 3 TARGETS mentioned on my previous idea, with continual BEARISH momentum therefore the update.
We are Currently in the process of printing a New Lower Low for SPCE, with the break of our MAJOR SUPPORT RED Dashed line.
Note also: Since this is a 3 day chart, we close the candle on the 17th of August. We also would need atleast 1 more candle after that if not more, that confirms the BREAK of SUPPORT.
With our current momentum i believe we may have further DECLINE.
1st Target = BLUE Support Trendline
2nd Target = PURPLE Lower Support Trendline of Channel
For Awareness -> It is possible we bounce from the BLUE line, a potential retracement being the BLACK trendline we initially broke out of. Keep an eye for Confirmation of Support.
But I still do think its PROBABLE we touch the PURPLE Channel as our Final Target, and potential BOTTOM. Whether right away or after the bounce play mentioned above, hard to tell currently.
I like this area because it would Strengthen the BULLISH DIVERGENCE currently forming. (Provided the signs of BULLISH DIvergence remain in our indicators).
I see this as a necessary capitulatory move, flushing out weak hands and setting out a Bottom Base.
At the end of each PRICE DECLINE, when we interact with the PURPLE Lower Trendline of the Channel.
It leads to a significant bounce back up to the Upper Trendline of Channel.
I won't highlight the % gains. I want you to Measure them for yourself but there MASSIVE gains. Keep that in mind.
On the RSI, we've been REJECTED.
Now we are moving towards the lower Support line that coincides with the BULLISH DIVERGENCE Play.
We need to maintain SUPPORT here.
Furthermore, for our BULLISH DIVERGENCE to play out we need to BREAK ABOVE Rejection zone.
STOCH RSI is currently Below the 20 level.
We don't want to be here for too long.
We need to see a BULLISH cross above the 20 level.
It moving towards the direction of the 80 level.
The BULLISH cross should occur after touching one of the 2 TARGETS. Just keep in mind, if we are going to go to the PURPLE line, we may be staying down here for weeks to couple months. Keep an eye
Notice also our VOLUME -> Our volume has been picking up since RJECTION. Which validates this Downtrend. Was giving us some hints before New Lows.
Just food for thought: As a trader always have your options open and be flexible. We do not have crystal balls of what price will do. Being unpredictable, markets do what they want based on human psychology so never fixate on one target. Keep an open mind to different possibilities.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
***Read my Previous Analysis BELOW From 08/06/23 For More Context!
Stay tuned for more updates on SPCEin the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
We have been on a continual PRICE DECLINE since our MAJOR REJECTION, June 22, 2023.
Its depicted by the Massive ENGULFING BEAR Candle.
This area was also a Major RESISTANCE area with convergence of the RED and PURPLE lines.
Note that Previous times we've had touch points on the PURPLE Upper Trendline of the Channel we've had massive PRICE DECLINES.
1st one = 53%
2nd one = 60%
3rd one = 54%
At the time of my previous posted Idea, we had closed below the BLACK SUPPORT trendline. But i mentioned we needed "Confirmation". Well its absolutely CONFIRMED, and thus continual price decline. (Check out my previous idea on SPCE BELOW for more context.)
We have also reached 2 of our 3 TARGETS mentioned on my previous idea, with continual BEARISH momentum therefore the update.
We are Currently in the process of printing a New Lower Low for SPCE, with the break of our MAJOR SUPPORT RED Dashed line.
Note also: Since this is a 3 day chart, we close the candle on the 17th of August. We also would need atleast 1 more candle after that if not more, that confirms the BREAK of SUPPORT.
With our current momentum i believe we may have further DECLINE.
1st Target = BLUE Support Trendline
2nd Target = PURPLE Lower Support Trendline of Channel
For Awareness -> It is possible we bounce from the BLUE line, a potential retracement being the BLACK trendline we initially broke out of. Keep an eye for Confirmation of Support.
But I still do think its PROBABLE we touch the PURPLE Channel as our Final Target, and potential BOTTOM. Whether right away or after the bounce play mentioned above, hard to tell currently.
I like this area because it would Strengthen the BULLISH DIVERGENCE currently forming. (Provided the signs of BULLISH DIvergence remain in our indicators).
I see this as a necessary capitulatory move, flushing out weak hands and setting out a Bottom Base.
At the end of each PRICE DECLINE, when we interact with the PURPLE Lower Trendline of the Channel.
It leads to a significant bounce back up to the Upper Trendline of Channel.
I won't highlight the % gains. I want you to Measure them for yourself but there MASSIVE gains. Keep that in mind.
On the RSI, we've been REJECTED.
Now we are moving towards the lower Support line that coincides with the BULLISH DIVERGENCE Play.
We need to maintain SUPPORT here.
Furthermore, for our BULLISH DIVERGENCE to play out we need to BREAK ABOVE Rejection zone.
STOCH RSI is currently Below the 20 level.
We don't want to be here for too long.
We need to see a BULLISH cross above the 20 level.
It moving towards the direction of the 80 level.
The BULLISH cross should occur after touching one of the 2 TARGETS. Just keep in mind, if we are going to go to the PURPLE line, we may be staying down here for weeks to couple months. Keep an eye
Notice also our VOLUME -> Our volume has been picking up since RJECTION. Which validates this Downtrend. Was giving us some hints before New Lows.
Just food for thought: As a trader always have your options open and be flexible. We do not have crystal balls of what price will do. Being unpredictable, markets do what they want based on human psychology so never fixate on one target. Keep an open mind to different possibilities.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
***Read my Previous Analysis BELOW From 08/06/23 For More Context!
Stay tuned for more updates on SPCEin the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Note
WE are in the process of Breaking below the BLUE SUpport line. Next target would be the Support line of the Downward Purple ChannelNote
WE have CONFIRMED Below the Blue Support Line.
Printed a Gravestone Doji which signaled continuation of DECLINES.
Purple Line Target in Sight.
Note
Seems like we will print todays candle with a small body.
This gives a sense that selling pressure is cooling.
We are also in extreme OVERSOLD conditions in RSI on Daily.
Everytime we've printed Oversold RSI and price action has interacted with significant trendlines, we've had some sort of bounce.
We have hit NEW 52 week lows. But have reached a psychological level, whole number = $2.00.
BUT note: Timeframes such as 3 Day or 1 week still show signs that more sell off can happen.
Very important to be cautious. Still feels like catching a falling knife.
I would also like to see a touch of the Purple line and just more clarity that selling has cooled off.
Note
We have touched the Lower Purple Line and are currently in the process of establishing Support.
WEdnesday candle had us below briefly, but with Thursday candle we managed to come back ABOVE.
Next couple of daily candles must maintain and confirm support on Purple line.
RSI showing oversold conditions.
MACD also showing waning Bearish Momenum with the presence of higher lows/ shrinking of the size of the bars on the Histogram bars shown by the Black trendline. Watch for a Bullish Cross.
Our current target would be re-test of BLUE line.
If & When SUPPORT is CONFIRMED. This would make an ENTRY area for taking positions. Stop loss would go BELOW Purple Line. So adjust to your risk tolerance accordingly. Try to execute buys closer to the Purple Line if not on it.
Note
Quick little update:
Purple downtrend channel has been replaced by a Downtrend Blue Channel.
On the 3 Day timeframe.
Our current candle is BELOW the Blue Parallel Downtrend Channel.
But our current 3 Day candle will close on the 26th. So we have not yet printed being below. So watch closely.
Since August 1st we've been on a free fall. Which is probably a sign that people are giving up on this stock probably.
But fear in the markets or in a stock could mean the bottom is near.
But im still not yet convinced. We might not have seen the end of the giving up.
As far as im convinced, there is always a chance of further declines.
I am not in the camp of buying a falling knife.
One thing to help us determine decrease in sell off intensity is VOLUME. We can see Volume is starting to decreasing, which would mean the Sell off is starting to cool off.
If we confirm below the channel. This thing could go lower and we would have to wait longer to get more technical data and reassess.
To consider taking positions, The safe entry point would be firm signs of CONFIRMING Support on the lower line of the Downtrend Channel.
Hope this helps. Keep Vigilant!
Note
I also want to take the time to thank everyone for the support! This is my 1st chart idea to reach over 1k views. Closing in on 1300 views! Hope its helped one way or another. Thanks again for taking the time to go through my post and for supporting me!Since we maybe getting close to a bottom, i will make sure to update more frequently. So stay tuned!
Note
We are currently in the process of going head on with the Lower Trendline of the Downward channel.
Currently in the process of testing Resistance.
Showing signs of rejection, especially if we close at the end of todays trading session as we are.
As long as we do NOT print a Lower low below the $1.58 level. We should be safe and building up to momentum for a Uptrend.
If we move sideways, this would also be a great sign as it would indicate consolidation. Which essentially builds momentum.
Note also the Print of Inverted Hammer and Hammer candles.
After a downtrend, these candles can be indicators of a potential reversal of the trend.
But ultimately, i feel the safest if we get back inside of the Blue Channel, confirming support on the lower trendline.
Volume is currently very low. Which may be indicating that SPCE is bottoming out.
We need to look to increase or spike in volume, for any chance of going back into the channel.
MACD has crossed bullish -> we must continue this trend with printing of Large Green candles.
STOCH also seems like there is still more room for bullish momentum to continue.
Note
TYPO* For MACD Its not large green candles, we need Large green "histobars"
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