The recent reduction in global trade tensions has helped Crude Oil (WTI) prices recover from lows of 55.64 seen on May 5th, to trade comfortably above 60 for the last 2 weeks. Traders have readjusted their thinking and positioning to account for a slightly more stable background for the global economy, and its potential influence on upcoming demand for Oil.
However, despite this, tests of the recent highs at 65.33, seen on April 23rd, have been few and far between, although yesterday saw a spike in Crude Oil prices up to a 1 month high of 64.60 on a CNN report that suggested that Israel has drawn up plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. While prices have since moved lower again, the market reaction to this news does highlight the sensitivity of traders to any potential escalation in geopolitical risks in the region.
It is also important to remember that traders are still awaiting updates on progress from US/Iran talks to curb Iran's nuclear activities. President Trump only a week ago said a deal was getting close, while Iran's top negotiator has seen shed some doubt over whether that's the case. Either way, updates on both of these crucial events may well influence Crude Oil prices moving forward.
Adding to yesterday's volatile moves was a weekly report providing an update on the size of US Oil inventories which always grabs the attention of traders. Yesterday's release quickly dashed any hopes of a fresh move to test higher levels as it outlined an increase in stockpiles to 10 month highs and a fall in gasoline demand, which saw prices fall back lower (61.71 low) into the recent trading range.
This extra volatility within the recent trading range sets up a potentially tense finish to the week for Crude Oil prices, so its often useful to check out the technical landscape for further insight.
Technical Update: Evidence Points to a Sideways Range
Since the sharp acceleration lower into the 55.20 April 9th 2025 low, Crude Oil has seen a consolidation emerge, with the mid-April recovery finding resistance at 65.15, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January 15th to April 9th 2025 weakness (see chart below).
This activity looks to have established both upper and lower extremes of a sideways range in price, especially as the latest price movement has been held within these levels, which are 65.15 to the upside and 55.20 to the downside.
Within technical analysis, this highlights something of a ‘battle’ between buyers and sellers, where price weakness is supported by buyers at or just above the 55.20 low, while price strength runs into resistance, as sellers continue to be found near the 38.2% retracement level at 65.15.
Adding Bollinger Bands To Support Trading Decisions
Now look at the chart below, where we include Bollinger bands alongside price action. This also appears to support an argument that a sideways trading range is forming.
The mid-average is currently flat with both the upper and lower Bollinger bands parallel to it, outlining that balanced price volatility is evident for now. This suggests the sideways range may well continue with the upper band, currently at 64.77 and the lower band, currently at 57.36.
We could argue that with the proximity of both the 65.15 Fibonacci retracement resistance to the upside, and the 55.20 April 9th low to the downside, upper extremes of the current range are 64.77/65.15, and lower levels of the current range are between 55.20/57.36.
What Could This Mean for Crude Oil?
For now at least, from a technical perspective the risks appear for the price of Crude Oil to remain within the confines of the current 55.20/57.36 up to 64.77/65.15 trading range, as there is no evidence emerging of an imminent breakout yet.
A closing breakout from the current range is required to suggest potential for a more extended phase of price movement,.
Of course, while any closing break is not a guarantee of a sustained move in the direction of the eventual break, any closes above 65.12/15 might see traders anticipate a further recovery in price towards 68.13, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, even 71.17, the higher 61.8% level.
To the downside, closes below the 55.20/57.30 lower daily Bollinger band and April 9th price low, might now be needed to skew possibilities towards a more extended phase of weakness.
Such activity might then suggest potential for further downside, towards 51.38, which was a price low established in January 2021.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
However, despite this, tests of the recent highs at 65.33, seen on April 23rd, have been few and far between, although yesterday saw a spike in Crude Oil prices up to a 1 month high of 64.60 on a CNN report that suggested that Israel has drawn up plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. While prices have since moved lower again, the market reaction to this news does highlight the sensitivity of traders to any potential escalation in geopolitical risks in the region.
It is also important to remember that traders are still awaiting updates on progress from US/Iran talks to curb Iran's nuclear activities. President Trump only a week ago said a deal was getting close, while Iran's top negotiator has seen shed some doubt over whether that's the case. Either way, updates on both of these crucial events may well influence Crude Oil prices moving forward.
Adding to yesterday's volatile moves was a weekly report providing an update on the size of US Oil inventories which always grabs the attention of traders. Yesterday's release quickly dashed any hopes of a fresh move to test higher levels as it outlined an increase in stockpiles to 10 month highs and a fall in gasoline demand, which saw prices fall back lower (61.71 low) into the recent trading range.
This extra volatility within the recent trading range sets up a potentially tense finish to the week for Crude Oil prices, so its often useful to check out the technical landscape for further insight.
Technical Update: Evidence Points to a Sideways Range
Since the sharp acceleration lower into the 55.20 April 9th 2025 low, Crude Oil has seen a consolidation emerge, with the mid-April recovery finding resistance at 65.15, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January 15th to April 9th 2025 weakness (see chart below).
This activity looks to have established both upper and lower extremes of a sideways range in price, especially as the latest price movement has been held within these levels, which are 65.15 to the upside and 55.20 to the downside.
Within technical analysis, this highlights something of a ‘battle’ between buyers and sellers, where price weakness is supported by buyers at or just above the 55.20 low, while price strength runs into resistance, as sellers continue to be found near the 38.2% retracement level at 65.15.
Adding Bollinger Bands To Support Trading Decisions
Now look at the chart below, where we include Bollinger bands alongside price action. This also appears to support an argument that a sideways trading range is forming.
The mid-average is currently flat with both the upper and lower Bollinger bands parallel to it, outlining that balanced price volatility is evident for now. This suggests the sideways range may well continue with the upper band, currently at 64.77 and the lower band, currently at 57.36.
We could argue that with the proximity of both the 65.15 Fibonacci retracement resistance to the upside, and the 55.20 April 9th low to the downside, upper extremes of the current range are 64.77/65.15, and lower levels of the current range are between 55.20/57.36.
What Could This Mean for Crude Oil?
For now at least, from a technical perspective the risks appear for the price of Crude Oil to remain within the confines of the current 55.20/57.36 up to 64.77/65.15 trading range, as there is no evidence emerging of an imminent breakout yet.
A closing breakout from the current range is required to suggest potential for a more extended phase of price movement,.
Of course, while any closing break is not a guarantee of a sustained move in the direction of the eventual break, any closes above 65.12/15 might see traders anticipate a further recovery in price towards 68.13, which is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, even 71.17, the higher 61.8% level.
To the downside, closes below the 55.20/57.30 lower daily Bollinger band and April 9th price low, might now be needed to skew possibilities towards a more extended phase of weakness.
Such activity might then suggest potential for further downside, towards 51.38, which was a price low established in January 2021.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.