On March 27, 2025, I published an analysis identifying the potential for a major bottom forming in the S&P 500 near 4,790.57:
Original chart and analysis
At that time, the index was consolidating just above key support, with growing downside pressure ahead of major economic reports. Despite broad caution in the market, the technical setup signaled a potential reversal.
The first rising channel developed in March, helping to support the rebound but it later broke to the downside, leading to another test of support. That move did not invalidate the broader structure.
On April 7, the S&P 500 made its cycle low at 4,835.04, just shy of the target. Since then, a second rising channel has formed, with higher lows and momentum supported by volume.
The price is now approaching major resistance at 5,822.
If it gets rejected, a pullback toward the rising trendline or the 5,438 area is likely. As long as price holds above the April 7 low and respects trendline support, the bullish structure remains intact. A confirmed breakdown below that support would increase the risk of a deeper retracement.
This progression underscores the importance of trusting price structure over sentiment.
The market followed the chart.
The bottom was April 7.
The call was made March 27.
The chart led the move.
Original chart and analysis
At that time, the index was consolidating just above key support, with growing downside pressure ahead of major economic reports. Despite broad caution in the market, the technical setup signaled a potential reversal.
The first rising channel developed in March, helping to support the rebound but it later broke to the downside, leading to another test of support. That move did not invalidate the broader structure.
On April 7, the S&P 500 made its cycle low at 4,835.04, just shy of the target. Since then, a second rising channel has formed, with higher lows and momentum supported by volume.
The price is now approaching major resistance at 5,822.
If it gets rejected, a pullback toward the rising trendline or the 5,438 area is likely. As long as price holds above the April 7 low and respects trendline support, the bullish structure remains intact. A confirmed breakdown below that support would increase the risk of a deeper retracement.
This progression underscores the importance of trusting price structure over sentiment.
The market followed the chart.
The bottom was April 7.
The call was made March 27.
The chart led the move.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.