SPX Q1 Review - Long/Short Thesis
Updated
Here are the levels I am observing.
Bullish, looking for dip opportunities and positive reaction off levels on LTF to scalp long
Targeting 4717 level, cool off, then Jan range high 4818 next target. A 10% move from here would put us around 5000
HTF Invalidation levels = Local higher low of 4424, potential H&S formation or price action break down; can then target short Jan range lows of 4222 (6.7% off april 1 close), and -8% from April 1st close around 4180...
Notable price action and trend for q1 2022:
Market down 13% Jan 1 - Feb 24.
March up 11% range off low of month, April 1st close we are 6% off Jan highs.
Jan lows, end of feb / beginning march reaction off of.
Notable trend change mid march, with buy volume.
Higher Lows mid march, followed through with break of lower highs from early march and beginning of Feb.
next local highs 4637 and 4751 , next local lows 4455 and 4424
marco notable:
sharpies... hedges off??
bofa - fear/greed buy signal
"inverted yield curves" - if bond market is unfavorable where does that money go?
sideline money waiting for capitulation
foreign money coming in
Growth vs Value, energy, war, pandemic, commodities, GOLD narratives
tech stocks wrecked - off Oct/Nov highs
revenge of the MEMEs
Crypto peaking out of yearly open
SPX
SPY
VIX
BTCUSD
Bullish, looking for dip opportunities and positive reaction off levels on LTF to scalp long
Targeting 4717 level, cool off, then Jan range high 4818 next target. A 10% move from here would put us around 5000
HTF Invalidation levels = Local higher low of 4424, potential H&S formation or price action break down; can then target short Jan range lows of 4222 (6.7% off april 1 close), and -8% from April 1st close around 4180...
Notable price action and trend for q1 2022:
Market down 13% Jan 1 - Feb 24.
March up 11% range off low of month, April 1st close we are 6% off Jan highs.
Jan lows, end of feb / beginning march reaction off of.
Notable trend change mid march, with buy volume.
Higher Lows mid march, followed through with break of lower highs from early march and beginning of Feb.
next local highs 4637 and 4751 , next local lows 4455 and 4424
marco notable:
sharpies... hedges off??
bofa - fear/greed buy signal
"inverted yield curves" - if bond market is unfavorable where does that money go?
sideline money waiting for capitulation
foreign money coming in
Growth vs Value, energy, war, pandemic, commodities, GOLD narratives
tech stocks wrecked - off Oct/Nov highs
revenge of the MEMEs
Crypto peaking out of yearly open
SPXSPYVIXBTCUSDNote
Green horizontal = weekly lvl Pink = yr open
Light Blue = last month open
Blue = Range lvl high/low
Black = local swing high/low
Red = daily / 4 hr SR flip
Note
FLOW FOR THE WEEK OF 4.4.22:FLOW
SPX=
Most active chains 4.1.22:
Mostly bearish
4.14.22 / 3750p, 3800p, 4400p,4000p
Chains with the highest OI 4.1.22:
mostly bearish
4.14.22 / 4000p
Biggest Options Traded 4.1.22:
call prem 263m / put prem 287m
12.20.24 / 2000c - 133m print
TOTAL OI = call 4m / put 7m
avg 3d call v / put v = 168k / 334k
4.1.22 call v / put v = 122k / 266k
Top 5 chains by volume 4.1.22:
4/5 Bearish
Top 10 Floor Trades (+
25K prem) 4.1.22:6/10 Bearish
Premium
1K - 30k , all bullish skew.SPY =
Most active chains 4.1.22:
4.2.22 / 450p, 452c
Chains with highest OI 4.1.22:
all bearish - 100k+ OI
4.4.22 / 440p
4.14.22 / 350p, 360p, 340p, 420p, 440p, 370p, 400p
Biggest Option Trades 4.1.22:
looks bull skewed, floor and cross trades both sides; biggest 2 bets were bullish to the weight of 7m+ and eod for 5.20.22; nearest exp was a bearish strategy play 4.14.22 450p for 5m premium.
Top Floor Trades (+
25K vol) 4.1.22:6/9 BULLISH
Premium
1K - 30k , all bullish skew.Dark pool printing volumes like a MOFO - been firing EVERYDAY since 3.7.22
TOTAL OI = call 6m / put 13m
avg 3d call v / put v = 2m / 4m
4.1.22 call v / put v = 2.9m / 3.7m
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.