2022 Déjà Vu? Markets Stalling at a Critical Level | SPX Market Analysis 05 Mar 2025
We expected roller-coaster swings this week, and the market hasn’t disappointed. The price action feels oddly familiar, reminiscent of early 2022, when a failed all-time high attempt led to a slow, choppy bear market.
Right now, the market is stuck at a key decision point—dithering at the lower range like it can’t decide whether to break down or bounce back up. ADD data leans slightly bullish, suggesting a possible range-bound chop with an upward bias, unless sellers take full control and push us into the February/March correction cycle.
No need to guess—I’m hedged and ready for either outcome. The only thing left to do? Wait for the market to tip its hand.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
The market is moving exactly as expected—lots of noise, little commitment, and price action that mirrors early 2022, just before the slow-motion bear market began.
📌 What’s Happening Right Now?
Markets failed to make new highs and are now chopping near the range lows
The last time we saw this structure? Early 2022 before a major shift downward
Price is hesitating, signalling traders are waiting for a catalyst
📌 Two Possible Outcomes:
1️⃣ A Range Reversal (Bullish Scenario)
ADD data suggests a short-term bullish bias
A grinding, sideways move with an upward tilt is likely
Ideal for small, quick trades—but no trend confirmation yet
2️⃣ The February-March Correction Cycle (Bearish Scenario)
If support fails, sellers could accelerate the move lower
Seasonal trends often bring a correction this time of year
Watching for signs of a decisive breakdown
📌 How I’m Approaching This Market:
✅ Staying hedged so that a move in either direction is fine
✅ Being patient—waiting for a strong move before committing capital
✅ Avoiding impulse trades—letting the market tell me what’s next
Traders who rush in too early this week could get chopped up in the indecision, while those who wait for a clear confirmation will be in the best position to capitalize.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The biggest one-day percentage drop in history wasn’t 2008—it was Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow crashed 22.6% in a single day.
💡 The Lesson? Markets can collapse out of nowhere, but structured traders with hedges and a system don’t panic—they profit.
We expected roller-coaster swings this week, and the market hasn’t disappointed. The price action feels oddly familiar, reminiscent of early 2022, when a failed all-time high attempt led to a slow, choppy bear market.
Right now, the market is stuck at a key decision point—dithering at the lower range like it can’t decide whether to break down or bounce back up. ADD data leans slightly bullish, suggesting a possible range-bound chop with an upward bias, unless sellers take full control and push us into the February/March correction cycle.
No need to guess—I’m hedged and ready for either outcome. The only thing left to do? Wait for the market to tip its hand.
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
The market is moving exactly as expected—lots of noise, little commitment, and price action that mirrors early 2022, just before the slow-motion bear market began.
📌 What’s Happening Right Now?
Markets failed to make new highs and are now chopping near the range lows
The last time we saw this structure? Early 2022 before a major shift downward
Price is hesitating, signalling traders are waiting for a catalyst
📌 Two Possible Outcomes:
1️⃣ A Range Reversal (Bullish Scenario)
ADD data suggests a short-term bullish bias
A grinding, sideways move with an upward tilt is likely
Ideal for small, quick trades—but no trend confirmation yet
2️⃣ The February-March Correction Cycle (Bearish Scenario)
If support fails, sellers could accelerate the move lower
Seasonal trends often bring a correction this time of year
Watching for signs of a decisive breakdown
📌 How I’m Approaching This Market:
✅ Staying hedged so that a move in either direction is fine
✅ Being patient—waiting for a strong move before committing capital
✅ Avoiding impulse trades—letting the market tell me what’s next
Traders who rush in too early this week could get chopped up in the indecision, while those who wait for a clear confirmation will be in the best position to capitalize.
---
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The biggest one-day percentage drop in history wasn’t 2008—it was Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow crashed 22.6% in a single day.
💡 The Lesson? Markets can collapse out of nowhere, but structured traders with hedges and a system don’t panic—they profit.
Full-time trader and mentor since 2001
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Full-time trader and mentor since 2001
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
Focusing on short term income swings with SPX options, futures and occasionally stocks.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.