General Market comment
Yesterday I cut half of my open positions.
Namely the digestion I was looking to get, in the obvious line of resistance (200DMA) is not acting as per model.
Historical Precedent
What is different is the way that the market digested the correction. I was expecting much more the a tight sideways digestion on low volume (green) but the action is not tight (purple). Now the low volume is there (red) ! However, this makes me much more cautious about the bullish scenario. The model we wanted was a much tighter action.
Do not let low volume mislead you! Check out the correction in 2007. We started on low volume but then on the bottom the down volume picked up. To be honest we never really got to "panic" mode in this bear market. The PutCall, VIX - never really showed panic markers, on the top of that the meme stocks are breaking out. Point being is that it is not impossible to bottom without these but it is unlikely.
Namely the digestion I was looking to get, in the obvious line of resistance (200DMA) is not acting as per model.
Historical Precedent
What is different is the way that the market digested the correction. I was expecting much more the a tight sideways digestion on low volume (green) but the action is not tight (purple). Now the low volume is there (red) ! However, this makes me much more cautious about the bullish scenario. The model we wanted was a much tighter action.
Do not let low volume mislead you! Check out the correction in 2007. We started on low volume but then on the bottom the down volume picked up. To be honest we never really got to "panic" mode in this bear market. The PutCall, VIX - never really showed panic markers, on the top of that the meme stocks are breaking out. Point being is that it is not impossible to bottom without these but it is unlikely.
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