$SPX lining up to bottom in late May
Using the data for how SPX reacts after achieving a weekly RSI over 70, we are able to see a potential top was likely around April 27 near 4216.5 using the median of the data, the data going back to post the Great Recession, using this data, the next target down for a bottom would be about May 25 near 4029.8, which conveniently fits on a trendline from October and March. The next point of data is the returns for SPX when there are 2 weeks in row of less than or equal to a .15% move on each week. The median return for the next week is about -0.74%, if we do have a negative week, it would confirm the downtrend, a positive week would confirm an uptrend, which I exact is not as likely of a case, but if it does, look for a parabolic move upwards, 4-5% in the next month. Now back to the median of the data, it would put us near 4045.2 on June 1, which is also on the trendline as well. In short, the stars are aligning for a red May, the seasonality is a bonus feature. The first week will decide the fate of the month, it is looking to be a negative week/month.
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