An Accurate Vortex Predictor for Monthly Direction for SP:SPX by UnknownUnicorn5511258

An Accurate Vortex Predictor for Monthly Direction

Turns out that when you overlay the 13-Day Vortex Indicator over monthly SPX data, you get an incredibly accurate predictor of what the following month's overall direction will be after the month of a crossover.

As you can see, every month where a blue-over-red cross occurs precedes a blue (green, bull) month. Vice versa applies to months following a red-over-blue cross on the 13-Day Vortex Indicator.

I've only tested this out on SPX recent monthly data, but it seems to be somewhat uncanny so far. Curious to see if this holds using other assets and timeframes.

Whatever, it works.

- Cycpiglical Indicator

Note

For individual stocks, recommend swiching your chart from monthly to weekly while keeping the indicator as is at 13-day.

Ive only tried a handful of large caps so far, but weekly is a much better fit (and is way more useful if it works) than the monthly.

Monthly seems to have worked decently on BTC as well, so maybe the monthly is more accurate for broader indexes while weekly is better for individual, specific assets. Just thinking out loud, dont mind me.

Note

Now this could be pretty incredible if used contextually with the broader "monthly" index indicator above. The same indicator but 4 Hours instead of Daily Vortex and the chart itself should be set to the daily, not monthly.

Chipotle, Tesla and AAPL:

Note

Would be pretty sweet knowing the general color of any stock's next 4-hour candle.

May write a script based on these concepts. If someone beats me to it, just let me know so that I can not waste my time. Couldnt care less if my name is on it.

Note

~sorry, this second one posted allows (hypothetically) to see the following day's general direction if the current day crosses over on the 4-hour timeframe.

So, disregard those instructions, and set the indicator to 4-hour and the underlying chart to daily.

Note

Will give anyone 250 coins to turn this indicator into a strategy, backtest it and post the results on here. I will do this for the first two who post, if there are any at all.

Note

*tradingview coins, not any crypto coin traded outside this website. not trying to get sued here.

Note

only one spot left for coins.

Note

all coin-based fee arrangements are now closed.

these results should be interesting..

Note

Quick Update: Ive dug quite a bit into SPX historical data and can conclude the following:

- This indicator works every time there is a singular cross (either direction) in the month prior to the one being examined

- The indicator will still predict well if there are multiple crosses in the prior month, but the month under examination could initially trade either way. Also, it can be difficult identifying which cross occurs last and whether it should be included in the current month instead.

Bottom Line: This thing holds pretty much every time there is a singular, clear crossover in the month prior. If such conditions do not exist, the indicator predicts whipsaw-like movement in the month being examined.

Trade active

Seems last month gave us a Red Up-Cross, which means that this month should give us a net retracement (or a slightly bearish red doji) candle at the very least.

I'm just wondering how similar it will look to the one with the silver star on the left-hand side of the chart.

If any sort of downside reversal closes on the month, then it's just one more tool for you to potentially rely on as a tiebreaker when markets look 50/50.

UnknownUnicorn5511258

Related publications

An SPX Vortex Suggests a Market-Wide Cyclone

by UnknownUnicorn5511258

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.