Price action looks like a stop loss raid of those who hedged against a pullback on Monday with a short position. Typically this leads to a sharp and fast move higher, followed by a sudden even stronger pullback at a later point in time.
I believe there is a turning point in the trend this week. That's why I doubled down on my bearish outlook.
Short entry: 2822 (ideally 2825)
Stop loss: 2836
Target: 2714
I believe there is a turning point in the trend this week. That's why I doubled down on my bearish outlook.
Short entry: 2822 (ideally 2825)
Stop loss: 2836
Target: 2714
Trade active
Short from 2824Note
After slowly declining from a high at 2825.91 around 1pm EST, the S&P 500 made a very strong spike upwards and advanced including the very last minute of cash trading. Thereby the S&P 500 closed at the very high of the day at 2833.03. 15min
1min
It's getting harder and harder to forecast any turning points. Which is why I raise my stop loss from 2836 to 2843.5
Note
Once there is finally a pullback (ideally to at least 2769-2767), I will close the short during that pullback, if it does not get stopped out at 2842.5 (this is the newer stop loss I had shared in my last update of my short idea yesterday, as seen above). I did a lot of analysis today and changed my mind that the rally could actually sustain to go much higher to at least 2960 (after that potential pullback).
Trade closed: stop reached
Stopped out at the open on Wednesday. The S&P 500 gapped up and opened higher yet again at 2845.42, currently trading with a high of 2852.97.At least I was emotionally prepared to get stopped out today after Tuesday didn't trade weak enough to close the short at break even, that's why I shared this bullish chart yesterday:
Maybe Wednesday is going to be the peak for the week and I was just two days to early with starting to go short, but moving up the stop loss higher and higher every day is a losers game. I was wrong and moving the stop loss up by 7 points was already a mistake in hindsight.
Note
The S&P 500 is finally cooling off. If I hadn't been stopped out with the gap up today, I would have closed my short from 2824 here at 2826
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.