S&P 500 Monthly: ... keep the helmets close by now?
After getting stopped out of our initial 25% short position taken against the prior wave 'b' high at 2879.22
for approx. a 10 point loss, we stood aside to let the game play out. And play it out it did with the CTA's
reversing from 100% short to 100% long.
Reference: zerohedge.com/markets/was-fast-ctas-hammered-after-turning-100-long-gamma-craters
The subsequent wave 'b' high 2954.86 (to-date), now becomes the line in the sand against any 'bullish'
interpretation of the market move from the March low. The CTA's are now 69% short, and forecast to go 100%
short below 2805.
We would keep the helmets close by now. The most bearish scenario has me looking at an 'Hourly chart and
seeing the move down today in a series of 1-2 counts, potentially leading into the strongest move down,
possibly beginning Monday.
Three levels need to be breached in this scenario very quickly, the first at ~2849.60, the next at ~2892.20
and last at ~2902.40 in order to negate the immediate 'bearish' scenario.
The concern is that we could accelerate down at increasing speed come Monday as part of a first larger
wave down. An opening gap below 2805 could trigger it.
There will be time once this 1st larger wave down completes to put on short positions, on a recovery
attempt.
"Boy Scout Motto"
for approx. a 10 point loss, we stood aside to let the game play out. And play it out it did with the CTA's
reversing from 100% short to 100% long.
Reference: zerohedge.com/markets/was-fast-ctas-hammered-after-turning-100-long-gamma-craters
The subsequent wave 'b' high 2954.86 (to-date), now becomes the line in the sand against any 'bullish'
interpretation of the market move from the March low. The CTA's are now 69% short, and forecast to go 100%
short below 2805.
We would keep the helmets close by now. The most bearish scenario has me looking at an 'Hourly chart and
seeing the move down today in a series of 1-2 counts, potentially leading into the strongest move down,
possibly beginning Monday.
Three levels need to be breached in this scenario very quickly, the first at ~2849.60, the next at ~2892.20
and last at ~2902.40 in order to negate the immediate 'bearish' scenario.
The concern is that we could accelerate down at increasing speed come Monday as part of a first larger
wave down. An opening gap below 2805 could trigger it.
There will be time once this 1st larger wave down completes to put on short positions, on a recovery
attempt.
"Boy Scout Motto"
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