History is cyclical. So, read this. Bitcoin vs SP500
——
Part 1
On the right is the S&P500 index (conditionally 1960-85 years). Bitcoin on the left.
Stocks used to be as much of a novelty as crypto is now. Facts first, opinions second.
Facts:
— 1965-70 years. Green zone
>>> Economic growth, more dollars, assets grow. But the war in Vietnam continues and world economic growth gradually stops.
>>> Now: 2019-21 very strong growth of the stock and crypto market due to dollar printing. Towards the end of the inflation problem and the war in Ukraine. The economy worsened.
— 1970-75 years. Purple zone
>>> The fight against very strong inflation begins. Oil crisis. The USA spends a lot of money on the war in Vietnam. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
>>> Now: The US and the EU are battling inflation, but it's not over yet. The USA spends a lot of resources to support Ukraine in the war. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
— 1975-85+ years. Orange zone.
>>> The end of the war. Inflation is still strong but improving. Tax reduction as a new policy of Reagan (USA). General improvement of the global economy.
Part 1
On the right is the S&P500 index (conditionally 1960-85 years). Bitcoin on the left.
Stocks used to be as much of a novelty as crypto is now. Facts first, opinions second.
Facts:
— 1965-70 years. Green zone
>>> Economic growth, more dollars, assets grow. But the war in Vietnam continues and world economic growth gradually stops.
>>> Now: 2019-21 very strong growth of the stock and crypto market due to dollar printing. Towards the end of the inflation problem and the war in Ukraine. The economy worsened.
— 1970-75 years. Purple zone
>>> The fight against very strong inflation begins. Oil crisis. The USA spends a lot of money on the war in Vietnam. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
>>> Now: The US and the EU are battling inflation, but it's not over yet. The USA spends a lot of resources to support Ukraine in the war. The global economy is not growing (stagnant). Taxes are increasing.
— 1975-85+ years. Orange zone.
>>> The end of the war. Inflation is still strong but improving. Tax reduction as a new policy of Reagan (USA). General improvement of the global economy.
Note
——Part 2.
I copied the SP500 chart for demonstration and transferred (blue) to Bitcoin. Of course, this is as conditional as possible... However, personally, I have always said that I expect $70-130k from Bitcoin. Will there be more? Wow, great! However... No one knows for sure, even
cryptohayes
is the god of forecasting economic phenomena. Markets are random, which depends on everything that surrounds us.
This post is not created as a "credible idea". I'm just exploring scenarios so that I can potentially be more prepared in the future based on how the markets move.
Importantly! I have already made a comparison between current Bitcoin and
SPX (SP500) during the dotcom bubble.Then there was a similar scenario as in the picture. That is, we have at least one more repetition of such a situation in the 2000s. And the MOST interesting thing is that point (3) from the picture fell under the introduction of ETFs - exactly the same as what is happening now - Bitcoin ETFs from the largest funds. Point 1, before that, was the result of the creation of popular online trading and investment tools - the same thing that happened with crypto in 2020-21. Oldies, you remember what it was like even in 2016-17... It’s hard to remember)
My personal conclusion. I don't hold Bitcoin, although that could be a mistake. I do not expect anything excessive from Bitcoin in the new cycle. I do not believe that everything in the world will suddenly become good, because any healing takes time. I hold altcoins, mostly
WBTUSDT , 
EOSUSD and 
WAXPUSDT .
◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️
Founder of Real Charts: linktr.ee/sholi_from_real_charts
Founder of Real Charts: linktr.ee/sholi_from_real_charts
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️
Founder of Real Charts: linktr.ee/sholi_from_real_charts
Founder of Real Charts: linktr.ee/sholi_from_real_charts
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.