S&P 500 Monthly (Cash) - 1st big test of Macro Support
Please refer to the attached chart (best viewed on a desktop PC screen).
The 1st big test of Macro support levels is occurring now. Failure to hold here could see could see a flush down to approx. 3500, in the worst case.
Best case scenario would be to hold Macro support here, allowing for a few hair raising probes through the support lines, perhaps, and then consolidate further to form a base into roughly the fall season (? – drawn out Ukrainian invasion and stubborn inflation).
The most sensitive momentum measure (%R – bottom panel) is fairly deep in maximum oversold territory now but the longer term momentum measures (MACD & Stoch – 1st and 2nd panels below chart) appear to need more time to round into a bottom before turning up. Somewhat more supportive of the best case scenario, further consolidation. Traders/Investors should monitor Daily & particularly Weekly momentum measures now for signs of bottoming and crossovers to the upside with the view to a potential trading range developing.
Note: The projected pathway of the momentum measures was instituted last fall and has not been altered since then.
Regards
The 1st big test of Macro support levels is occurring now. Failure to hold here could see could see a flush down to approx. 3500, in the worst case.
Best case scenario would be to hold Macro support here, allowing for a few hair raising probes through the support lines, perhaps, and then consolidate further to form a base into roughly the fall season (? – drawn out Ukrainian invasion and stubborn inflation).
The most sensitive momentum measure (%R – bottom panel) is fairly deep in maximum oversold territory now but the longer term momentum measures (MACD & Stoch – 1st and 2nd panels below chart) appear to need more time to round into a bottom before turning up. Somewhat more supportive of the best case scenario, further consolidation. Traders/Investors should monitor Daily & particularly Weekly momentum measures now for signs of bottoming and crossovers to the upside with the view to a potential trading range developing.
Note: The projected pathway of the momentum measures was instituted last fall and has not been altered since then.
Regards
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