Just putting my personal view based on market information and minimum speculation.
I hope my warning of a crash in my last post was useful
I rely heavily on volume profile and market geometry and of course my indicator( check it out: HiLo Ema squeeze bands)
I expect the market to fall to 4820 (about 61.8% fib level) to fill some volume gap, also 2022 peak, do a small a-b-c bottom and then rally back up to say 5450 ish, if some good news is heard. This would be just a bear rally
But I believe, Trump has opened a pandora's box and the market is still not aware of the full impact of it, or maybe it did realise and hence the crash
16% of USA budget is used for interest payment. If inflation rises and China and Japan keep selling treasuries, the bonds will go down. Not to speak of some major hedge funds like Citadel and banks holding trillions in treasury bond would increase their unrealised losses on bonds. But the stock market fall will force them to liquidate the bonds realise the loss, unless Fed buys the bonds back, which they will as always. That would be QE and the next bull run will begin. The banks have been holding the bonds since covid. Remember Silico Valley bank going burst! That was a sample.
Fed has managed to clicked the can down the road long, but Trumps policies will send the can in Fed's face
A financial liquidity baby seeded by Fed and Biden Adm during covid is about to take birth soon as financial crisis
I am bearish till Fed announces QE
I hope my warning of a crash in my last post was useful
I rely heavily on volume profile and market geometry and of course my indicator( check it out: HiLo Ema squeeze bands)
I expect the market to fall to 4820 (about 61.8% fib level) to fill some volume gap, also 2022 peak, do a small a-b-c bottom and then rally back up to say 5450 ish, if some good news is heard. This would be just a bear rally
But I believe, Trump has opened a pandora's box and the market is still not aware of the full impact of it, or maybe it did realise and hence the crash
16% of USA budget is used for interest payment. If inflation rises and China and Japan keep selling treasuries, the bonds will go down. Not to speak of some major hedge funds like Citadel and banks holding trillions in treasury bond would increase their unrealised losses on bonds. But the stock market fall will force them to liquidate the bonds realise the loss, unless Fed buys the bonds back, which they will as always. That would be QE and the next bull run will begin. The banks have been holding the bonds since covid. Remember Silico Valley bank going burst! That was a sample.
Fed has managed to clicked the can down the road long, but Trumps policies will send the can in Fed's face
A financial liquidity baby seeded by Fed and Biden Adm during covid is about to take birth soon as financial crisis
I am bearish till Fed announces QE
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.