spx 4000-4020 incoming very soon
Updated
here is what i see: an inverse head and shoulder formed at the bottom of a series of gap downs over the course of roughly ten days. today the neck line broke. projection for this type of break is usually the size of the neckline to the peak of the head. it is no coincidence that this math works out to just about 4k. the fact there is a gap there is highly suggestive of filling. this is also intersected with the longer term downtrend line around the beginning of july. window dressing could easily help push us there slowly, or it could even happen quickly like next monday. i do not expect us to continue much further higher from there, but the next resistances above would be around 4100 and 4150. to top it off, we're not in an overbought condition on daily or 4h; shorter time frame indicators however are, so it could consolidate a bit before getting there, but i'd expect it to be there within the next 2 or so weeks. trading under ~~3825 would invalidate this pattern. gl!
part of the move could be inspired by an increase in 'peak inflation past us' rhethoric given the recent decline in 10Y, decline in oil, gas, and other commodities (esp foods like wheat, corn, oats), all of which have come off significantly in the past few sessions. headlines reading of 'maybe rate hikes wont be as aggressive' or 'cpi might be under 8?!' couuld start to emerge for this bigger push.
part of the move could be inspired by an increase in 'peak inflation past us' rhethoric given the recent decline in 10Y, decline in oil, gas, and other commodities (esp foods like wheat, corn, oats), all of which have come off significantly in the past few sessions. headlines reading of 'maybe rate hikes wont be as aggressive' or 'cpi might be under 8?!' couuld start to emerge for this bigger push.
Comment
possible fill in the am tomorrow, but we are pretty much there. time to get out and sit until it decides if there is more gas or not. seems pretty unlikely there is much left in the tank to me - but could stretch to 4150.Trade closed: target reached
closed out, started some shorts now :)
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