Short

On the Right Shoulder

Updated

Get Ready. VIX rising with rising price. RSI <60, got 70 at the Head > divergence. Do not buy into this fake rally.

Bear ain't over, after hibernating all winter, it will come out hungry in springtime. 900 days. VIX >40. Watch.

Note

Calls paid. Wow. Gone overbought. Expect weakness from top of Bolly band.

Note

Do not be fooled. Bear market will last 900+ days. The Fibonacci .62 TIME ratio for the countertrend rally from the 2022 bear move is 121 days, 62% of the 195 days down last year. Kudos to markrivest for noticing! See chart below.

The Countertrend rally typically proceeds in three drives, 'Three Drives to the Top'. A Fibo projection suggests PRICE might reach 4270 then, nearly to the August high from last year.

Remember what happened then!? >>Bam. Short trading week, Good Friday holiday, might see a brief pullback before MOMO takes bull by horns and charges uphill again. Thursday could be a blowout, or a dump before long weekend... chancy now.

May > June will get bloody. Buy when blood runs in the streets. Even if it's your own.

Note

Bear engulfing candle in DJI

Note

Press the view button on graph. See the signal top? Bear engulfing candle at local top. Shorted in SDOW, SPXS, UVXY. Grabbed a dozen Apr VIX $20 calls. Grab some SQQQ later this week, add as we grind along. These inverse ETFs are not investments. you cannot hold them very long, most of the drops have played out over 4-6 sessions, this could be the beginning of something larger IMO. You do not DCA into these like a stonk, but positioning at various prices is less risky than plunging. Time decay in these etfs is real so you don't want to keep them more than a few weeks at most.

Could get real bearish in May/June IMO; Capitulation will follow disappointment after yet another failed rally.
Be cautious around CPI report next week as it could fuel another rally on spec.

Note

An indecision day, late-day short covering rally and bargain hunting filled in early selling. Second day like this... when a downtrend starts, the first moves are modest and typically offer retracements. A good chance now that the bulls will gain encouragement and wrestle for control, another green day or two is likely.

The Bear signal was clear, price can ofc rally to a double top and even squeak a bit higher. Encouraging CPI numbers next Weds on 12 April could be catalyst for a big move, either way. FOMC is 2/3 May; another 25bp hike was promised and to be expected.

Trade active

Carried a few shorts over weekend, closed early on weakness. Monday pattern just like Thursday's before the holiday. Gap down, partial fill, secondary sell then bull. These gapfill days are warning signals. Price gets marked down then bid back up, one day soon it will mark down and stay down.

A BTE CPI number Weds AM could pop this rally to the final leg. Or disappoint. High risk any position.

Trade active

Twice rejected after CPI. Get ready; topped out.

DaddySawbucks

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Another Push Lower? Right Shoulder Rally Soon?

by DaddySawbucks

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