S&P 500 IndexShort
S&P potential bottom Sept 2020 around $1450? Short from $2800.
Updated
I think the S&P is likely to see a wick down to around $2350 sometime in April, but will likely close the month green or pretty close to neutral.
If I am correct, then that should lead to a little more upside in the next 2 months on the way back up to the 50% retracement of the March plunge. Top should be around $2800 before rolling over again.
The 1.61 Extension of the March plunge just happens to correlate with the double top from 2000 and 2007. I'd say we have a decent chance of seeing $1450 in the S&P's future this year.
As for timing I drew a trend line down from the tops of the last 2 months. If we make it through April without a new low, then around Sept would be my best guess for bottom.
I would be looking to short the S&P from the 50% bounce down. Enter on a weekly or higher timeframe after testing $2792 and closing below.
Enter short $2750 (or as close to $2792 as possible)
TP 1 : $2045
TP 2 : $1750
TP 3 : $1475
If I am correct, then that should lead to a little more upside in the next 2 months on the way back up to the 50% retracement of the March plunge. Top should be around $2800 before rolling over again.
The 1.61 Extension of the March plunge just happens to correlate with the double top from 2000 and 2007. I'd say we have a decent chance of seeing $1450 in the S&P's future this year.
As for timing I drew a trend line down from the tops of the last 2 months. If we make it through April without a new low, then around Sept would be my best guess for bottom.
I would be looking to short the S&P from the 50% bounce down. Enter on a weekly or higher timeframe after testing $2792 and closing below.
Enter short $2750 (or as close to $2792 as possible)
TP 1 : $2045
TP 2 : $1750
TP 3 : $1475
Note
The weekly chart spiked up high enough to touch my target range. So far price seems to be respecting the bottom side of the trend line. I drew in a basic representation of what I expect to see over the next 3 months or so. Let's see how this plays out.
Note
Looks like the S&P has been a little more bullish than I previously expected. I still think my bottom is in play for Aug/Sept time frame, but we have already hit a higher high than I expected to see.I'd say May is going to be a mostly correction month to re-test the $2750 line from the top side. I am still of the mindset that we will see the final top in June sometime. The updated version looks like the top will be around the $3109 area.
Note
S&P on the monthly chart looks top heavy with declining volume, but still looks like we could have another green month left to go in August.High volume tops are in my opinion a sign of an imminent sell off.
I will be watching closely for when does the volume start to pick up on the daily and weekly time frames. I expect volume to come in right around $3330 to $3393 as traders sell the top and short the market.
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