Harmonic Cypher Perfects at Gapfill 4018
Updated
The gap must fill. Short not until it does imo. Measured Move projected with price bands, +302 pips for a 1:1 move.
Gap may fill Friday. Expect weakness before FOMC, then a stupid bullup as follows:
7/27 1400 rate decision; initial ludicrous pop followed within minutes by a selloff. Price declines until ~1425 in falling wedge.
At ~1428 EST J Powell will step up to the mic and make soothing comments.
Irrational mad bullishness follows, rising price in giant arc up to close.
Thursday after the hike could turn into a bloodbath. Last time bad news was so good they bought it next day.
This time, who knows? Don't get caught short in these nutty rallies.
The Shark Cypher is a giant W with right leg taller than left. Other variants include crab, nenstar, etc;
nomenclature based on leg heights.
It is a BEARISH construct which usually leads to lower prices after break from right leg. There is the short entry.
Included RSI, Stoch and Stoch/RSI indicators for comparision to each other, these are interesting.
All approaching overbought. Target: The gap to fill below at 3796. Price very unlikely to fall below lower BollBand imo.
This is STILL A BEAR MARKET; all rallies are setup for lower prices ahead, until proved otherwise.
IMO the LOTY is still not in; could be mistaken, let us see what madness transpires in October... GLTA!
Gap may fill Friday. Expect weakness before FOMC, then a stupid bullup as follows:
7/27 1400 rate decision; initial ludicrous pop followed within minutes by a selloff. Price declines until ~1425 in falling wedge.
At ~1428 EST J Powell will step up to the mic and make soothing comments.
Irrational mad bullishness follows, rising price in giant arc up to close.
Thursday after the hike could turn into a bloodbath. Last time bad news was so good they bought it next day.
This time, who knows? Don't get caught short in these nutty rallies.
The Shark Cypher is a giant W with right leg taller than left. Other variants include crab, nenstar, etc;
nomenclature based on leg heights.
It is a BEARISH construct which usually leads to lower prices after break from right leg. There is the short entry.
Included RSI, Stoch and Stoch/RSI indicators for comparision to each other, these are interesting.
All approaching overbought. Target: The gap to fill below at 3796. Price very unlikely to fall below lower BollBand imo.
This is STILL A BEAR MARKET; all rallies are setup for lower prices ahead, until proved otherwise.
IMO the LOTY is still not in; could be mistaken, let us see what madness transpires in October... GLTA!
Trade active
opened 3 spy 397c 1dte @1.75, a lottoNote
Nuts! Holding 3 spycNote
Added 2 399c AH. Expect exhaustion gap up. GLTA!Note
Took 3 moar on late AH weakness, we shall see.Trade active
Nice lift closed all the 0dte calls +400Note
NQ futurz were -100 ah see if it fadesTrade active
Flipped 5 moar calls for 200 bones. Early am chop should give way to bulls imoNote
Flipped 20 calls for 500 bones was dicey lol hangin on by nailsNote
OMG look how it drops ffs i took 1k of other ppls money and now they vaporized it, do not hold more than a minute lol!Note
So unstable behaves like just before a break down. No big positions today folks tread lightly with care.Note
Rejection at 4012 might be all she wrote. Watching it. No pos.Note
Yeah starts to look bearish again. Measured move completed in early trade, probably just about done imo.Note
Flipped calls lucky as hell to get out. Got a damned space needle; a shooting star. Rally done IMO.Note
Not entering big short yet, got an impulsive minute 5-EW in day; short if it gives a retracement EOD.Note
Bears are back in town... stepped away to work on house and come back to find this mess, lol.Note
Getting a weak rally flipped 4 calls, looking for short entryNote
Opened 4 SQQQ 7/29 46.5c debit 2.45x400. Small swing pos for weekend.Note
Opoening ITM spread, watch they close above 300:-2 Jul-22-22 $300 Puts
+2 Jul-29-22 $302.5 Puts
ITM
Note
Added a put spread and another SQQQ call. Opened 200 SPXS and 200 SQQQ, short 7/22 expiring call option $47 strikes. Roll EOD if needed.Note
Added two more spreads now in 5 put spreads and 5 sqqq calls. About as much as I want to carry over weekend.Getting late near EOD, if you load up here and there is a late rally you'll be holding bag looking at weekend, don't like to do that.
Trade active
Added spreads and SQQQ calls EOD, holding 15 over weekend. Will see if we get Red Monday.Trade active
Closed all shorts on early weakness. Probly gonna get a bump at FOMC.Flipped ten calls for fun & profit. Travel day, bbl eod.
Note
Terrific chop, price swings up/down >$1 on QQQ. Stayin out atm. Might be stupid bullishness before fomc, idk. Could crack anytime too. Pure crapshoot.Note
See-saw day. Got a little from it. Tues probly be bully against all logic and reason. No pos. Expect some weakness before 2pm Weds, whipsaw on rate hike, then stupid irrational bull move EOD Weds.
There be the short entry imo.
Note
Not chasing the short, expect whipping.Trade active
Flipping calls on weaknessNote
Chopppyyyyy... will it find support? No shorts yetNote
Treasuries invertedNote
Lotta pressure. Coulda shorted QQQ after all but the other indexes holding up pretty well. Probly get some recovery by EOD IMO.Note
Most or nearly all the weakness is NQ. Look DJI, RUT nearly flat, little changed. Market is mulling over prospects, they deciding whether to sell this rally and dump it or get more invested. Seems still undecided.Note
WMT down ten bucks, but 3M +9 lol. Action packed ERsTrade active
Flipped few calls on SPY, DIA EOD on teeny lift. Barely worth it.Note
Shoulda kept the calls, lol. They like the lousy ERs AH huge pop. Go figure.Note
Yeah nuts. Wait for 2pm, gap didn't fill in an hour probly fill thursday.Note
No pullback after 2 hrs. Probly stay up until 2pm. Sitting out again.Note
Nothing makes sense, logic and reason are inapplicable. Look, Goog and Msft missed, they bull. Shop guidance sucked, it bulls. Meta comes next, probly miss... and bull ffs.Trade active
Flipped calls on first reaction rolled into puts closed, watch!Note
Gosh a very muted reaction; is the price exhausted? All wait for JPowell...Trade active
Flipped few calls again. Waiting.Note
TBVH what makes logical sense is market should sell on big hike and inverted T-bills. But it doesn't... hopium?! News already baked into price; Tues selloff was the reaction, perhaps? Risky....
Note
Took 2 calls and closed, fades, idk...Note
Ofc it pops after you close lol!Note
Flipped 20 puts yayNote
Flipped ten more spy 400p. Pretty well satisfied to have made bank on both calls and puts on an FOMC day; a first!Note
Absolutely nuts. Holding nothing, but probly sells tomorrow, last time it did this it bulled again for two days so not loading up on anything. This could be the high point, or it could have another 100 pips in it.Nuts!
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