Good Evening Traders,
I hope everybody is doing good.
In this analysis, we will have a look at the SPX. We can see that the SPX is currently in a range of 2555.86 and 2684.14. However, I am expecting a break lower this week. I am expecting a hawkish FED on Wednesday in it' FOMC Statement which can be a catalyst for a move lower.
With that said, I think a break of the rising trendline from 04-02-2018 to the downside will occur this week for a retest of the 2-year rising trendline. This range play can us take for at least a few days/weeks. Having a look at the second chart which is the volatility index (VIX). You can see that the instrument is trapped in a bullish triangle pattern. As long as it stays above 14.58 it should extend higher, which will put pressure on the SPX as they are negatively correlated to each other.
I am expecting a retest of the 2593.82 trendline in the ideal case.
This view will be invalid once SPX breaks 2684.14 resistance.
I hope you enjoyed this view.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view presented is not any trading recommendation, just personal view.