MACRO UPDATE - History is no longer reality since debasement
Take some time to focus on the information and macro movement here and compare it with my notes.
Why are leading economists and leading institutions fumbling? imagine comparing history prior to 2008 where Quantitative Easing did not exist.
No standard macro indicator will be accurate due to the debasement of money that happen during the GFC, compare the SPY to money supply we see that we barely have reached post 2001 levels, 2007 highs.
Jerome Powell will not admit this because the system has basically been debased hence the over compensation for rate rises why did he do it? because the debt situation is worse than it seems.
This is a very unique situation where retail is still majority short on options/futures while money market funds are still in trillions of cash. If this does play out and you're an institution do you wait for the final bubble to melt up? or do you allocate now and try to capitalize or risk missing the market, either way, something interesting is about to happen.
Reminder NO economic indicator can be trusted prior to 2008, its like using map plans for Atlantis you will quickly find out all your indicators are defected.
T10Y2 | Is the indicator the federal reserve uses to find recessions.
USM2 | M2 US money supply
USINTR | USA Interest Rates
WALCL | Federal Reserve balance sheet
SPY/M2SL | SPY adjusted for the debasement
Blue line | Global (major) central bank balances
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