Santa Does Not Come to Bear Markets
Updated
A fierce face-ripping rally characteristic of bear markets caught shorts out on Winter Solstice, but should not be mistaken for anything than another bear rally.
We have had a number of these all year long. This is no different. The .382 fibo aligns with 50 MA at the higher structure neckline, an ominous triple coincidence. IMO this move is consistent with an Elliot Fourth Wave, with a Fifth Wave final plunge yet to follow.
Highlighted RSI graph, notice the Twin Peak Things in prior cascade. We are lining up with Thing Two. After the Things visit there will be quite a mess to clean up imo.
IMO it is very unlikely that a real rally begins here, although Santa could bring a few days of holiday cheer, Mr Grinch will be just around the corner to spoil the holiday party. Historically a Santa rally does not visit bear markets. Signpost marker on Weds 28 Dec is purely notional based on overlay.
In fact, another decline could begin at any time. Lot of resistance present at highs near 3890 on 12/21. Futures at time of this writing suggest a notch higher still.
Projections are notional based on repeating pattern from Aug-October decline. So far has followed along pretty closely. IF the pattern repeats, we could be looking at 3640 on the Left Inverted Shoulder low by Monday 9 Jan 2023. This projection suggests a Right Inverted Shoulder may form; in fact an even lower low could emerge in January!
Either way, an even weaker rally might ensue thereafter in the weeks leading up to FOMC on 1 Feb, likely to be another trigger event.
IF the pattern mimics 2009, a waterfall cascade in Feb/Mar 2023 will see capitulation and real panic to conclude the Great Bear of 2022.
We have had a number of these all year long. This is no different. The .382 fibo aligns with 50 MA at the higher structure neckline, an ominous triple coincidence. IMO this move is consistent with an Elliot Fourth Wave, with a Fifth Wave final plunge yet to follow.
Highlighted RSI graph, notice the Twin Peak Things in prior cascade. We are lining up with Thing Two. After the Things visit there will be quite a mess to clean up imo.
IMO it is very unlikely that a real rally begins here, although Santa could bring a few days of holiday cheer, Mr Grinch will be just around the corner to spoil the holiday party. Historically a Santa rally does not visit bear markets. Signpost marker on Weds 28 Dec is purely notional based on overlay.
In fact, another decline could begin at any time. Lot of resistance present at highs near 3890 on 12/21. Futures at time of this writing suggest a notch higher still.
Projections are notional based on repeating pattern from Aug-October decline. So far has followed along pretty closely. IF the pattern repeats, we could be looking at 3640 on the Left Inverted Shoulder low by Monday 9 Jan 2023. This projection suggests a Right Inverted Shoulder may form; in fact an even lower low could emerge in January!
Either way, an even weaker rally might ensue thereafter in the weeks leading up to FOMC on 1 Feb, likely to be another trigger event.
IF the pattern mimics 2009, a waterfall cascade in Feb/Mar 2023 will see capitulation and real panic to conclude the Great Bear of 2022.
Note
That was fast, lol. HOHOHONote
Grind grind grind. Probly get lower Friday risk-off before holiday weekend. Santa took a rain check.Note
AmaZing session. SPY 381 Puts for $1 went over $5 at 1pm. 80c calls at 2pm went to $4. Insanity!How easy to get wiped out: the 12/22 0dte 381 puts traded for $5.45 and closed 3:59 just .09c ITM.
These are not investments!
Trade active
Chop chop chop. Early selloff Grinch puts paid but Santa calls came to town for the real move. Could be headed much lower if price won't break resistance at 3830, former support. Happy Holidays!!Note
Grinch sightings. Jingle of sleigh bells was Max dog collar and fake reindeer horns. Rising bear wedge. Break soon.
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