I was busy all weekend, this update will be quick.
Still seeing this as a bear market, well it is for the past 9 months wasnt it.
The main trend is still down!
Please note those purple lines are the unfilled gaps, will be gone each time the price will fill those, otherwise act as magnet to fill, depends on the trend
Looking at the price action, I can see 1-2, 1-2 development (Im not an EWT pro or do I want to be at this point) to the downside and much lower levels into Oct/Nov low.
Also think, that this bear market will merge into Q1 2023 and should bottom sometime in Apr/early May
As for this upcoming week of Sep 19th:
- Im looking for a day or 2 muted bounce and continue lower after the FOMC decision.
- If we see the opposite, a drift lower into the FOMC decision, then I would be looking for a long right before the announcement.
I think we will bottom this week on the 21st-22nd, or make a intraday low next week 27-29th.
Friday price action wasnt what I expected and limited to the downside by holding 3850 level.
I dont find that level important to hold and think its a low level of support at this point.
The most important thing on Friday was this - the price gaped down below my 3880-86 support level, which was much stronger then 3850 level.
So I think this can still get to 3802-17SPX early next week, ideally on Monday and then move up into a muted action to 3950-60SPX level and reverse lower from there.
Main weekly resistance is 4155-60 with 4015-25 in the middle.
Support levels:
- 3802-17
- 3750-55
- 3735-40
- 3720
- below last number nothing but air till 3636 and my ideal target of 3580, 3550-55 and 3500 even.
My main target for this move is at 3200-10SPX! And I think we will see lower into 2020 higher lows in 2023
Im looking to buy longs tomorrow in 3802-17 zone or just short 3950 zone.
No need in over trading this but the levels of importance!
Have a great weekend, do not over trade, this bear market will get both sides, wait for a good setup to take with higher R/R odds
P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well.
Thanks in advance!