The crisis is not already gone, but maybe the worst is over
Updated
Hello there, this is our view on SPX, enjoy!
We've seen a good price recover after the capitulation happened during the second/third week of March. And the worst seems to be really over, so why I'm still bearish about that?
First of all, never forget about the news: coronavirus is still spreading, US are now the first country by active cases and US also exceed 10k deaths already. God bless Americans. Yet the crisis end can't be foreseen, we hope we'll see an end very soon. Neither China gives good news: more than 20M people are still quarantined and so Chinese seems to be very far from a recover.
To go on with I just applied a thorough technical analysis, so let's see our points: a rising wedge can be seen clearly on daily chart, which is bearish and its textbook says it'll dump 360$. Another bearish feature clearly visible is the W bearish Gartley pattern, which stands for a strong bearish continuation. Giving another look at chart, you'll see that daily candle has opened with a big gap which is about to be closed forming a counterattack line pattern which also gives signal of a reversal. Price is now moving under multiple pending moving averages death crosses. And that's the same for exponential ema, weighted wma and smoothed smma.
More technical in between: price is far away from ichimoku cloud, it could've turned bullish once price entered it, but unless the vaccine was discovered tomorrow it wouldn't get inside of the cloud spontaneously. Then they come oscillators: fisher transform, ultimate, which also are making another bearish divergence with price below the same trendline, and stochastic are starting to look overbought.
There are some fewer bullish aspects, which I'm writing down in order not to be catastrophic: in fact we've recently seen a candle bullish sandwich and an island reversal, which are both bullish signs. And latest gaps might be part of a sort of upside Tasuki gap, targeting next fibo resistance zone. Bollinger bands start to look very bullish on daily as price broke middle band and never went in overbought while there; it's too yet tho to make any predictions on it because bands haven't stretched enough so far. Relative strength index is growing very well from oversold since before the small uptrend started. Both awesome and moving average convergence-divergence are stating bullish momentum.
I tend to believe that most traders are now fearful, so maybe price is pushing a little higher before a major dump occurs. Fact: many people are not working meanwhile fiat are losing their values. So those people are not gain enough to save something which they could invest. Latest dump was a cashout of many of them and people are having fewer and fewer savings (which are also losing value, where should them invest in order to preserve their purchasing power?), if nothing changes this will definitely lead to another sell off.
We are not stock nor index traders, so we're proposing a strategy just like we approach cryptos. Make sure trend has changed and do properly your researches before investing in this one.
Entry (short): 2657 - 2737
Target (mid-term): 2482 - 2446 - 2200
Stoploss: 2760
Risk/reward: 3.41
Trade safe and stay at home. Anlvis
We've seen a good price recover after the capitulation happened during the second/third week of March. And the worst seems to be really over, so why I'm still bearish about that?
First of all, never forget about the news: coronavirus is still spreading, US are now the first country by active cases and US also exceed 10k deaths already. God bless Americans. Yet the crisis end can't be foreseen, we hope we'll see an end very soon. Neither China gives good news: more than 20M people are still quarantined and so Chinese seems to be very far from a recover.
To go on with I just applied a thorough technical analysis, so let's see our points: a rising wedge can be seen clearly on daily chart, which is bearish and its textbook says it'll dump 360$. Another bearish feature clearly visible is the W bearish Gartley pattern, which stands for a strong bearish continuation. Giving another look at chart, you'll see that daily candle has opened with a big gap which is about to be closed forming a counterattack line pattern which also gives signal of a reversal. Price is now moving under multiple pending moving averages death crosses. And that's the same for exponential ema, weighted wma and smoothed smma.
More technical in between: price is far away from ichimoku cloud, it could've turned bullish once price entered it, but unless the vaccine was discovered tomorrow it wouldn't get inside of the cloud spontaneously. Then they come oscillators: fisher transform, ultimate, which also are making another bearish divergence with price below the same trendline, and stochastic are starting to look overbought.
There are some fewer bullish aspects, which I'm writing down in order not to be catastrophic: in fact we've recently seen a candle bullish sandwich and an island reversal, which are both bullish signs. And latest gaps might be part of a sort of upside Tasuki gap, targeting next fibo resistance zone. Bollinger bands start to look very bullish on daily as price broke middle band and never went in overbought while there; it's too yet tho to make any predictions on it because bands haven't stretched enough so far. Relative strength index is growing very well from oversold since before the small uptrend started. Both awesome and moving average convergence-divergence are stating bullish momentum.
I tend to believe that most traders are now fearful, so maybe price is pushing a little higher before a major dump occurs. Fact: many people are not working meanwhile fiat are losing their values. So those people are not gain enough to save something which they could invest. Latest dump was a cashout of many of them and people are having fewer and fewer savings (which are also losing value, where should them invest in order to preserve their purchasing power?), if nothing changes this will definitely lead to another sell off.
We are not stock nor index traders, so we're proposing a strategy just like we approach cryptos. Make sure trend has changed and do properly your researches before investing in this one.
Entry (short): 2657 - 2737
Target (mid-term): 2482 - 2446 - 2200
Stoploss: 2760
Risk/reward: 3.41
Trade safe and stay at home. Anlvis
Trade active
Short on h4 close if below 2798, it will be spx death if it completed the island reversal in overbought
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